As the shippers sink, should you jump onboard?
Monday, 11 August 2008
Investing in the shipping sector has not been for the faint of heart recently. As commodities have lost their luster, so have the industries that are lumped in with them, such as the shippers, the fertilizers, and large industrial mining equipment manufacturers. These 4 shippers are all Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks: Tsakos Energy & Navigation (TNP), Genco Shipping (GNK), TBS International (TBSI), and Paragon Shipping (PRGN). Yet investors have shown their love by selling off all four stocks Tsakos Energy, a crude shipper, is down 17% from its 52-week high. Genco, which ships drybulk cargo, has fallen 35%. Paragon, another drybulk shipper, lost 49%.
It's more of the same for TBS International, a drybulk shipper that specializes in smaller ships that can service hard to reach ports, as its shares have dropped 58% over the last 52 weeks.
Are These Stocks Like the Titanic?
Coming on the heels of these sharp sell-offs, are the shipping stocks a juicy value play or a value trap? Commodities are suddenly in disfavor and Wall Street fears a greater global slowdown that will likely impact shipping rates and volumes.
Fortunately, all four of these companies recently gave insight into the shipping sector when they reported quarterly earnings. Each one had a great quarter and was bullish about the rest of 2008 as the time charter rates and spot rates continue to rise compared with 2007.
Tsakos Energy Reports a Record Quarter
Tsakos Energy reported second quarter earnings on Aug 1 that easily beat Wall Street estimates by 32%. Net income jumped 84.5% to $69.20 million, or $1.82 per share, from $37.52 million, or 98 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2007. Analysts expected $1.38 per share.
Revenues jumped 36.8% to $146.64 million from $107.22 million in the year ago period as time charter equivalent rates rose to $39,512 per day per ship compared to $30,021 in the second quarter of 2007.
The company said that the spot and period freight rate environment continued to be very strong, as tanker rates averaged levels not seen since the 1970s. However, Tsakos expects global growth to decelerate in the second half of 2008.
Genco Secures 94% of 2008 Fleet
On July 30, Genco reported second quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates by 13.37%, or 23 cents per share. Net income was $58.3 million, or $1.95 per share compared to analysts' estimates of $1.72 per share.
Genco is set for 2008 as it has approximately 94% of the fleet's available days secured on contracts. Additionally, it has 60% secured in 2009. GNK said it continues to renew vessels at attractive rates and to sign newly acquired vessels to charters prior to delivery.
Like the other shippers, GNK saw its average daily time charter equivalent, or TCE, rates soar by 95% in the quarter to $40,945 per day compared to $21,046 per day for the second quarter of 2007.
TBS International Reports Its Second Record Quarter in a Row
TBS International didn't just have a great quarter, it had the best quarter in the company's history. Net income rose 142.4% to $52.6 million, or $1.82 per share, compared to $21.7 million, or 77 cents per share in the second quarter of 2007. Consensus estimates called for $1.63 per share.
Revenues jumped 104.6% to $156.9 million from $76.7 million in the year ago period. Voyage revenues totaled $128.7 million, up 113.1% from $60.4 million in 2007.
Cargo volume increased 52.7% and freight rates rose 37.6%, or $25.06 to $91.79 per ton compared to $66.73 per ton in the 2007 period.
Paragon Shipping Raises its Dividend on a Record Quarter
On Aug 6, PRGN reported a record second quarter as net income for the quarter, excluding non-cash items, was 49 cents per share compared to 45 cents per share in the second quarter of 2007. This was an estimate surprise of 19.51%.
Time charter revenue jumped 196% to $40.6 million from $13.7 million in the second quarter of 2007.
The company is bullish about 2008 as it has already fixed 100% of its fleet for the year. PRGN announced it raised its dividend 14.3% for the second quarter compared to the first as growth looks strong and time charter rates continue to be high.
Do These Companies Sound Down and Out to You?
Obviously, prior quarters are not indicative of future results. But the first six months of the year have been extremely bullish for the shipping sector. Full year estimates are rising on each of these companies and valuations are attractive.
All four trade at under 10x forward earnings. TBS International has a forward P/E of only 4.16.
TNP, GNK and PRGN also pay healthy dividends. Currently, Tsakos is yielding 5.30%, Genco 6.90% and Paragon 11.40%.
Source: Zacks
