another post from city trade
I like this guy!
Yes it's pretty easy actually..
Blinkx is a very transparent company:
Nope my estimates have been £1 by Xmas & I've raised that to £2- by the May Full reports and would expect breakeven way ahead of projections, maybe by intrim.
Also I've been considtant with £5-£15 forecast in 2-3 years, that is 2011
I think it figures in terms of share price, hits V revenues.
The revenues are defined by blink in theor reports.
the numbers of hits are defined in companies like hitwise
You can do it by numbers or else you can do it by % increase, month on month but it amounts to the same.
I am projecting exponential growth, and I think that is reasonable for the next 4 years +, and also it's done 1000% increase since May 2007 (blinkx was doing video search before this, but only listed in May 2007)
Blinkx has had costs of IPO to pay off, otherwise it would have broken even by now.
I also look at the white collar deals blinkx is doing, the management team, the sector, and then how well blinkx performs in the sector.
The fact ot has made a takeover bid for a dead duck, MIVA, is in my view the proof that it is going to seize as much of the market in video as it can.
Blinkx is known as a video search engine, but it makes its money from relevant advertising placement.
I saw doubleclick growing (from close up) and it had a similar drive.
THere is a lesson to be learned from recovery stocks as Autonomy, the larent company was trading at £00.93p and is now £10.00, although at the height of the dot com boom it was £40-. Mike Lynch took it off Nasdaq.
But it's proven a sound recovery stock, and blinkx is certianly there.
I think the market got it right on the day of its launch.
MIVA deal gave me great confidence because I'd beleived the team at blinkx was capable of playing big time, but didn't have any evidence of it.
Suranga Chandratilake has some formiddable investing expertise to draw on from his major shareholders and his team are international
.
I dont think it's an easy business model to understand because there are so many software options, but the bottam line is clicks=revenue.
There are serious advantages with blinkx over alternatives: try google video, altavista video, yahoo video etc
Compare them and its obvious why blinkx is booming.
So I factor in competance, vision and energy of management, what advice they can call on, and how their business plan has worked or failed.
In a climate where credit is very difficult or at exhorbitant rates, blinkx has large cash reserves.
But there are also deals in the offing: the BBC archives is the obvious one and negotiations I gather have been going on for months. Even if blinkx doesn't get that, it has already gazzumped the market with launch after launch.
On line video is just starting. The speed of signalling is going to increase dramatically by 2011.
Portable computing, mobiles and wearables will become mainstream and MOST of the stuff on line will be driven by advertising.
blinkx doesn't charge you to advertise...it just shares revenues out of profits.
I am also aware of developments in logic and software which has become increasing model driven, and new languages are coming.
At present anyone with a foothold in intelligent computing, which I know a little about, is going to clean up.
i have spoken to the head of Google R&D and ditto microsoft head of research @ microsoft and it's my judgement blinkx can nail the market before they knw what's hit them.
They aren't idiots and will try to tackle the revenue side of video search, but blinkx has patented everything it's brought out so they will either do some tight deals, or try to buy blinkx.
The highest user increase is the 12-17yr old americans, and I expect gaming to be available at some stage with blinkx systems (i've no knowledge of blinkx working on this, it would juts be a surprize if they didn't do it):
The video gaming industry is pre
