Repros Therapeutics, Inc. (RPRX)

[steveporsche]

OT - Yes I still follow ALTH and still have a very very small position. When rsr-13 failed badly I considered myself lucky for getting out at around $5.40 with a basis in the mid $2s. I felt the stock had some townside protection with the PDX PII so I held through the final rsr-13 blow-up. The stock was stable through the blow-up so I guess the market had already discounted failure. PDX is an interesting "new and improved" chemo with the "pivotal" PII for a form of NHL. They have recently started a bunch of new trials for the drug for other indications including, nsc lung, bladder, kidney, so mgt is strong on the drug. The relatively new ceo is from Bone Care so he has brought stuff to market before. The "pivotal" PII is an open label single arm trial measuring response rates. The response dates so far in the trial (2/3rds through) have been good based on independent review at I believe 29%. The stock closed at $9.49 today so I am kicking myself - I just have doubts that a single PII will be enough to get by Pazdur even though they have an SPA - so I have been gun shy. Warburg and Baker Bros. are still heavy investors. If it blows up because Pazdur wants another trial I will probably be buying heavy. But, Pazdur loves chemos the saddist that he is - horrible side effects be damned so long as statistical purity is maintained - so who knows. I find that if you can find biotechs that blow-up with some meat left in their drug development programs and a cheap valuation, as in IDIX for example, ALTH after their 1st blow-up, etc, you can do very well. I don't always have downside protection as I recently reentered DNDN, and their is no downside protection if Impact fails.