Got to be careful with looking at the BTB only for signs of a peak, , first, you never know a "max" in that series has occurred until few months past that peak, just look at the last three reading they indicated that possibly we had the peak in DEcember, that was a good peak for the semi's in general, the stocks, not the shipments and semi equips shipments. Equipment is still increasing in both shipments and bookings, and this cycle might have a "quirk" in it, while the rest of the world might peak, China might continue to over spend (as Japan did during recession years in the 70') for political and "misguided" national security reasons (they feel, like Japan and after that Korea and Taiwan) that they must reach a critical mass in semiconductors manufacturing to maintain competitive advantage, they may keep spending more than the "normal cycle" would require through the next cycle peak, until they find out that "just in time" semi capex is a healthier approach, because semi capex, is often not worth th shipping costs when they become too old.... I think that listening to what INTC plan to do in Capex, is probably a better measure of future capex health than the "naked" BTB ratio. Having said all this, right now, it seems that the sector is still quite healthy, and unless my reading on the market in general in the next three to six month is completely opposite of what the market may do, would say that stocks like AMAT and KLAC are probably near the bottom of their range here rather than ready for a big "spill"....
