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Re: RedneckInvestor post# 23397

Friday, 08/08/2008 12:19:27 PM

Friday, August 08, 2008 12:19:27 PM

Post# of 24183
Several factors are at work here...

Comparison charts...(I need to chart an Oil Index chart to go along with these too.)
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I think the drop in Silver and conversely the rise in the USD is due primarily to the drop in oil prices over the last couple of weeks.

However, Hanes on CNBC said something important that's not being mentioned in other circles,.... the fact that the Chinese have done two important things lately.

They raised the artificial cap on gas prices to their citizens which I believe has had a noticeable effect on prices.

This move is at least partially counteracted by the fact that they forced several hundred or more factories to be shut down and also forced the number of cars on the road there to be cut in half(and even more recently cuz it wasn't working well enough)in order to clean up the air around Beijing for the Olympic games.

These moves have added to the lowering of demand for gas in the short term along with Americans actually cutting back on their driving for the first time in history in any meaningful way.

Another clue is the unemployment rate that's risen to the highest level in at least 5 yrs, and much much more if you believe as I do that those numbers are maniputed in order to hide the real unemployment rate which is imo(and others'), closer to 12-15% if you were to count the people who've run out of unemployment insurance and no longer count in the figures put out by this sheister govt of ours.

This unemployment rate is reflective of the general slowdown in the economy here and elsewhere in the world as well, and which consequently reduces the demand for fuels as factories and many other businesses cut back and/or shut down.

And remember, Silver is not only a hedge against a falling dollar, but also an important industrial commodity which will be in less demand as industries shut down and/or downsize.

So, before coming to any firm conclusions about oil, the dollar and silver I think we need to wait for a few things to happen...

1. The end of the Olympics and the Chinese forced reduction in short term demand.

2. The corresponding price moves in oil and it's price-effect on the general economy(s) as it responds to demand pressures globally and domestically.

3. All of which will effect the value of the USD which has been directly counter to the price of Silver/Gold which seem to be at least 2 of the main vehicles for dollar hedging.

Now throw in a probable Democratic landslide election coming up soon and a big push(hopefully)for alternative fuels and a huge gearing up of manufacturing to accomplish that as well as huge push(hopefully)to refurbish the crumbling infrastructure in the US that the morons running the country for the last 8 yrs have chosen to pretend doesn't exist.
These two factors alone,( creating entirly new, high paying industries that'll carry us forward for a generation or more and rebuilding the infrastructure) will potentially inject the biggest vitamin boost into our job numbers, and consequent confidence and payroll increases(discretionary income)that the US has seen since the New Deal.

The market is, I believe, finally starting to take the election into account and betting on a Democratic outcome which seems likely. But it's going to take some time to get the actual legislation done and begin the real work started, so....

Keep watching the comparison between OIL/USD/SILVER, the Olympics/Chinese, and the election and I think that's the best way to gauge what's going to happen.

Have this all memorized by next Monday for the pop quiz!







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McBUSHIE'S choice of Palin was irresponsible, dangerous and insulting to America's intelligence. That choice and his continuing smears/lies prove he'll do anything to win this election even to the point of endangering his own country.DEFEAT HIM!

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