MOMO'S BREAKOUT BOARD

[jaybird249]

Solar Rebound: CSUN Cheapest most explosive solar
Sold all my energy stocks, solar now a better bet for rebound. My best bet is CSUN.

The time to buy solar stocks as we saw with CSIQ at $6 is while they are turning operations around but before they report the actual earnings turnaround.

CSUN reminds me of CSIQ at $6 in this regard:

-$13 IPO price now trading at $8.10

-Credit Suisse just took 15% stake.

-$45 MM financing just done with $12 conversion price.

-$3 per share net liquid assets

-Returned to profitability in Q1 2008 despite 3 weeks of plant shutdown due to China snowstorms.

-Shipped 24 MW in Q1. Forecasting 32 MW in Q2 and 145 MW for all of 2008 implying ramp up to 40 - 45 MW per quarter in second half 2008.

-Production and gross margin forecast implies CSUN should be generating about $150 MM sales per quarter and $.20 EPS per quarter in second half 2008. This implies about $.80 annualized EPS (increasing production of high efficiency cells will dramatically improve margins going foward).

Apply a 20 sector PE and CSUN should double from here.

Remember the way to make money in the market is to be ahead of the game.. stocks rise in ANTICIPATION of improved results.


Here is good post on CSUN:

Some here might ask the question what is the difference between First Solar and China Sunergy. Well, I have an answer.

FSLR produces thin-film solar cells that will "roll on" to say a roof or where ever you might install a solar cell. CSUN produces the traditional glass panels.

One of the main differences between the two is polysilicon. In the last year or so there has been a shortage of polysilicon and the margins to sell the glass panels have been on the low side. Polysilicon has been tight.

First Solar doesnt require polysilicon where as China Sunenergy does...

You can read more about it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell#...

This means that First Solar and other solar companies are not aligned like most people believe. CSUN depends upon the polysilicon supply where as FSLR does not...

Therefore, as the polysilicon supply improves then CSUN, CSIQ, SOLF, JASO, etc. benefit. Remember the one thing that CSUN analysts were continually stating throughout 2007 was that the supply of poly was in question for CSUN? Well, here we are in 2008, do you think that supply might have improved in a year?

In fact, look at how the traditional solar companies are trading. Read their earnings call. The poly supply issue is resolving itself in time as more companies come online and increase their poly production.

CSUN is really a 50 dollar company, but management and poly supply issues have been the nagging concern. However, the old management was cleaned out and new board members added. The poly supply situation is resolving itself.

If you want to make 300-400% then buy and hold some shares. Improving fundamentals will help propel us to 50 within a year. Guaranteed.

As for the FSLR, their price might go down substantially. Traditional panels become more attractive when the poly supply increases. Thin film technogoly is still not as space efficient as traditional glass panels.

The truth, the honest truth, is that first generation solar technology still dominates in our world and new technologies have failed to become a solution. The solution right now is glass panels that CSUN makes.