Neuro,
It's hard for me to imagine SGP/Hassan letting this one get away from them. After all, they do have COR Ampakines in Phase II trials for schizophrenia, depression and ADHD, not exactly small indications.
Maybe I'm being too much a COR-o-phile, but I see COR as having a really innovative platform technology, a technology which is generating a number of interesting compounds and already has a couple of them in the clinic for very large indications. So what model is appropriate here to judge how a potential partner might handle COR? You know alot more about it than I do, but it seems to me that GSK's deal with Targacept (TGRT) is the model here, and probably sets the parameters of a potential deal for the Ampakines. (Although my uninformed reading of the science and what stage the respective companies are in lead me to believe that COR's assets are more valuable than Targacept's.)
(30-Jul-2007 - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has forged a $1.5bn (€1.1bn) alliance with US biopharma company Targacept, to develop drugs aimed at central nervous system (CNS) related disorders.
All of the compounds in the collaboration target specific neuronal nicotinic receptors (NNRs) across a range of therapeutic areas, including pain, smoking cessation, obesity, addiction, and Parkinson's disease. The most advanced compound is TC-2696, which is currently in Phase II trials for acute post-operative pain.
GSK will make an initial payment of $35m to Targacept with the remainder of the cash contingent on Targacept achieving specified discovery, development, regulatory and commercial milestones across the five therapeutic areas mentioned. The US company will also receive tiered double-digit royalties dependent on sales achieved."
As part of the deal, Targacept has retained an option to co-promote TC-2696 in the US and also another neuropathic pain compound - the preclinical candidate called TC-6499.
Neuronal nicotinic receptors are neurotransmitter-gated ion channel receptors that play a central role in modulating synaptic neurotransmission, fundamental intracellular signalling pathways, neuronal viability and synaptic architecture and function. There are several receptor subtypes with different functions, which is why the collaboration covers a range of therapeutic applications.
"The breadth of this alliance validates the importance of NNRs in the potential treatment of a broad range of CNS-related disorders and diseases," said Dr Donald deBethizy, CEO of Targacept.")
I would expect that if the partnership were with a BP, the BP would want to take an equity position in COR, perhaps not unlike NVS did with IDIX (although obviously we're comparing biotechs in totally different arenas). I don't see a buyout happening at all in the near future. Varney is young and wants to build his empire. Tran and Street probably consider themselves the best in their field and, I suspect, have no desire to have some schmuck at a BP telling them how to do their research into Ampakines. (Let's see how many top DNA scientists leave DNA, if and when the Roche takeover happens.) I bet Lynch and Rogers would oppose any kind of buyout as well. And I don't think you can reduce this to a simple dollars and cents equation. My experience with scientists and academics tells me that dollars matter, but they don't matter absolutely.
If Baldino were to attempt a buyout, I wouldn't be surprised to see some BP step in to prevent it. I don't think Stoll, Varney and Co. came this far to sell COR out--and it would be a "sell-out"--for 2 or 3 bucks a share.
I'll bet on the partnership--not buyout--scenario.
Bladerunner
