$treet Trader Lion's Den

[ORCA]

Hurricane Stock,ECCI.0007.Dolly to Become a Hurricane.Possibly as high as Category 3.Also more coming from Africa.Read Bold.ECCI should becoming a play soon.
/Tropical Storm Cristobal
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic
Tropical Storm Cristobal, as of 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday, was at 37.1 north, 71.4 west, or about 265 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and 660 miles southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The storm has maximum-sustained winds of 65 mph with higher gusts. The tropical storm is moving to the northeast at 13 mph, and it has a central pressure of 1000 mb or 29.53 inches. Cristobal will continue to move to the northeast through Monday night and will continue to pick up forward speed as it starts to get picked up by an upper-level trough that will be crossing the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Cristobal could briefly reach hurricane status tonight, as it continues to move over warm Gulf Stream waters. Cristobal will continue on a northeast path toward the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday, probably passing just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday night, and it could cause a blast of wind and rain across these areas. By this point, Cristobal should begin to lose its tropical characteristics.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT on Monday, Tropical Storm Dolly was over the southern Gulf of Mexico and was centered near 23.1 degrees north and 91.2 west or about 420 miles east-southeast of the southern tip of South Padre Island, Texas. Dolly is tracking to the northwest at 18 mph and has maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars or 29.65 inches.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the Texas coast from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Texas coast from north of Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. A hurricane watch remains in effect for Mexico from Rio San Fernando to the U.S. border. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Mexico from La Pesca to just south of Rio San Fernando.

Atmospheric conditions continue to improve in the path of Dolly as an upper-level low west of the system quickly retreats toward Mexico. As Dolly continues to pull away from land, look for marked strengthening in the next 12 to 24 hours as it moves into the middle of warm waters in the Bay of Campeche. The current track will place Dolly onshore on Wednesday around the Texas/Mexico border. However, blossoming convection on the north side of the storm could yank the center of storm to the north, perhaps creating a landfall slightly farther north along the Texas coast. We will have a better idea as the system pushes farther away from the Yucatan coast. We do expect the storm to strengthen to a Category 2 and it could even reach a 3 if its forward speed decreases. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will be strengthening over the central Rockies into the southern Plains mid to late week and would tend to steer Dolly deeper into Texas or northern Mexico on Thursday and Friday. At present, that ridge is fairly weak and may contribute to a more northward track initially.

Dolly will bring squally conditions to the Yucatan into Monday night and rainfall may be another 1-2 inches. We are concerned that Dolly has the potential to cause damaging winds and life threatening widespread flooding across South Texas and northern Mexico.

Elsewhere, there is a tropical wave along 70 west, south of 19 north, tracking west at 15-20 mph that will continue to be watched over the next few days. Currently, it has no deep convection associated with it, however, it is bringing a few showers to parts of the Lesser Antilles. There is also a weak low that has formed just to the south of Bermuda. There is little convection associated with the low and conditions are not favorable for further development.

Another wave is around 45/46 west and moving 15-20 mph westward. No development is expected from this system.

A strong tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa will need to be monitored for tropical development. A good deal of African dust is also moving off of Africa with this wave. This should help to inhibit development in the short term.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski