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Re: moores2009 post# 10831

Thursday, 07/17/2008 7:37:31 PM

Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:37:31 PM

Post# of 32583
yeah, I agree moores, the chart is showing a period of stagnation and uncertainty. There is NO indication of upward or downward movement. However, my reasoning is this: the worst case scenario is that it returns to a low, perhaps breaking the previous low of 0.012 and hangs at 0.01; this outcome would represent a -50% loss for me and perhaps for others who are in at around 0.018 to 0.02. But the best case scenario is that it surges to 0.05-0.10 on their Lone Oak results as well as their next earnings report; this best case scenario would represent a huge +150% to +350% gain for me and some others. So you see, even though it is universally agreed that there is downside potential (all stocks have downside potential, it's absurd to think that something will certainly gain), the risk-reward here at these levels is in the favor of longs. No one in their right minds would short the stock here, and those who are very conservative would rather buy macro-sized companies such as Citigroup or Apple than touch something like UVSE. So basically, the stock is showing a flat line, which is either a good place to be if you already have shares or a good place to buy if you're willing to wait a few weeks and risk AT WORST a -50% decline and AT BEST a +400% gain. That is the risk-reward as I have qualitatively calculated in my head.

I trade, therefore I am.