No AAPL position - it's too near midpoint of the range I'm expecting. Patience...
You could be correct. I am long shares and LEAPs. The shares are long term core holdings. The Jan 2010 LEAPs (strike prices of $160 and $180) were purchased to open when the shares were in the $120's and $160's. I have some Jan. 2009 $160's that I bought to open on June 27 that are green as of Thursday at close. Those may be gone before the July earnings report. I did hold some January 2009's through the January downdraft, and sold those a while back at a loss - they had recovered some and I basically rolled them out to Jan. 2010's
I think that in the competing drumrolls of a good G3 launch stories and negative stories about the launch and June quarter earnings - the positive will outweigh the negative. I do not see Mac growth slowing down based on what little we know about the quarter so far. To the extent that the share price reflects future prospects for Apple, I would give the range a higher base than $140 on funnymentals :).
OTOH, I have not been trying to time this exactly. I did a couple of trades in June, selling on weakness and rebuying on further weakness as I seem to do. I know the mantra is sell on strength, but I seem incapable of selling whilst there seems to be any strength:).
I think the iPhone is going to be a major hit. I think Mac growth rates may accelerate into the end of the year. I am nervous about the economy and the cost of energy and food sucking some of that growth out.
Anyway, I think AAPL is higher next year than it is this year.
In other areas, I have been pouring as much as I can afford into a tax deffered retirement plan going mostly into the large cap growth category, and will continue to do that. If this ain't the "buy low" part of the cycle - well, I'll still be doing that when the "buy low" part of the cycle gets here.
Sure hope it works out all right
