Sunday, July 06, 2008 1:24:00 PM
Exactly.However,since we don't know what revenue is going to be or when profit actually kicks in,which it will,despite critics/naysayers who say otherwise.......The ONLY thing you can do is speculate....So here's some more speculation.
Let's say they earn 1.00 a share the first year.If you take the average of the following companies which are in the same basic sector Fertilizer and Agriculture stocks,if you wanted you could throw in John deere,Caterpillar,etc. But we'll leave those out.
This explanation of P/E shows the problem in determining what is a "correct" P/E.
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"If there is one number that people look at than more any other it is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). The P/E is one of those numbers that investors throw around with great authority as if it told the whole story. Of course, it doesn’t tell the whole story (if it did, we wouldn’t need all the other numbers.)
The P/E looks at the relationship between the stock price and the company’s earnings. The P/E is the most popular metric of stock analysis, although it is far from the only one you should consider.
You calculate the P/E by taking the share price and dividing it by the company’s EPS.
P/E = Stock Price / EPS
For example, a company with a share price of $40 and an EPS of 8 would have a P/E of 5 ($40 / 8 = 5).
What does P/E tell you? The P/E gives you an idea of what the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. The higher the P/E the more the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. Some investors read a high P/E as an overpriced stock and that may be the case, however it can also indicate the market has high hopes for this stock’s future and has bid up the price.
Conversely, a low P/E may indicate a “vote of no confidence” by the market or it could mean this is a sleeper that the market has overlooked. Known as value stocks, many investors made their fortunes spotting these “diamonds in the rough” before the rest of the market discovered their true worth.
What is the “right” P/E? There is no correct answer to this question, because part of the answer depends on your willingness to pay for earnings. The more you are willing to pay, which means you believe the company has good long term prospects over and above its current position, the higher the “right” P/E is for that particular stock in your decision-making process. Another investor may not see the same value and think your “right” P/E is all wrong."
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Here are companies I've chosen and have listed all of their P/E ratios.I am going to go with the "AVERAGE" of the below companies.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
DARL = 22.43 DARLING
SMG = 12.58 SCOTTS
MON = 35.25 MONSANTO
MOS = 41.34 MOSAIC
POT = 46.66 POTASH
AG = 16.96 AGCO
AGU = 21.27 AGRIUM
TRA = 16.37 TERRA INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE = 26.61
So in other words with 1.00 PER SHARE EARNINGS "PROFIT" not just revenue,but revenue minus costs of doing business.
When 1.00 is achieved in profits we could then say that taking the average of the above companies P/Es' COIN should be trading at around 26.00 a share.
It's not difficult then to understand that COIN is most likely undervalued at this point and investors are not giving them their due.COIN will be profitable and much more than 1.00 a share .You could cut that in half and say they are worth 13.00 if their Profit were only .50cents ,conversely you could say 5.00 a share and that puts us well over 100.00 a share.
Each investor has to weigh all this and decide for themselves what it SHOULD be worth based on Future earnings.We are currently somewhat in the dark until the next few quarters come out and ramp up of sales occurs.However,again I think we are currently undervalued and should be in the teens awaiting these numbers.Frankly you would have to be a frigging idiot to not think the company will earn at least a dollar a share within the next 12 - 18 months.
There's more to deal with but the P/E is the simplest of all and represents familiarity among traders and investors.If you wanted to you could start breaking down the following as well:
Earnings per Share – EPS
Price to Earnings Ratio – P/E
Projected Earning Growth – PEG
Price to Sales – P/S
Price to Book – P/B
Dividend Payout Ratio
Dividend Yield
Book Value
Return on Equity
I'm not venturing out on that limb yet,just discussing P/E.
P/E is going to drive this stock initially based on what starts coming through the door IMO.
P/E and other information >>>
http://stocks.about.com/od/evaluatingstocks/a/pe.htm
One more thing,if you want to compare to SCOTTS ,their current P/E is 12.58 Kind of low when you look at others in the sector.......but for argument sake with 1.00 earnings COIN should be trading 12-13 a share.That's at a minimum.
It's not useless to try and sort this out,but it can be daunting without the future known figures for quarterly earnings reports.
Regardless I would give COIN the benefit of any doubt and say that they have delivered everything they have said they would so far.DON'T you think they will deliver Earnings as well?
I do and that is where I'm hanging my hat.
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