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Re: estimator post# 7461

Wednesday, 06/25/2008 9:48:53 PM

Wednesday, June 25, 2008 9:48:53 PM

Post# of 10243
Reuters Company Research
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. (GCOG) 23 Jun 2008
2001 2008
Share Price Summary Overview Percent Price Change GCOG S&P 500
Close Price on 6/23/08........................................... $0.00 Float (mil)........................................................... 980.000 Year to Date..............................542.86......... -10.24
Absolute Price Change on 6/23/08............................ 0.00 10 Day Average Volume (mil)................................. 11.873 One Year.....................................18.42......... -12.28
Percent Change................................................... 25.00% 1 Day Volume Change on 6/23/08........................ 79.64% Two Years................................. -85.00............ 5.91
Off 52-Week High...............................................-76.92% Market Capitalization (mil).............................................$4 Three Years............................... -96.54.......... 10.61
Over 52-Week Low.......................................... 1400.00% TTM Price/Earnings......................................................NA Five Years..................................-99.85.......... 34.02
Beta..................................................................... (1.107) Price/Earnings Current Fiscal Year Estimate...................NA Ten Years........................................ NA...............NA
Table of Contents
Getting Acquainted .................................2
Share Price Trends .................................3
General Sentiment ..................................4
Stock Price Rationale ..............................5
Footprints of Success ............................. 6
REUTERS COMPANY REPORT DISCLAIMER
This research report is provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form the sole basis for any investment decision. Reference to any company is not a recommendation
to buy or sell the shares of such company. The information used for, or presented in, this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Reuters makes no representation as to the
accuracy or completeness of such information. This report in intended only for users in the United States. Reuters has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader
thereof in the event that any matter stated herein becomes inaccurate. Reuters and/or its affiliates/investors may hold securities positions in the companies discussed in this report and may frequently
trade in such positions. Such investments may be inconsistent with the quantitative analysis provided in this report.
© Reuters 2004. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced, modified, distributed or published without the prior written authorization of Reuters. Reuters and the sphere logo are the
trademarks or registered trademarks of the Reuters Group of companies around the world.
Business Summary
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. is an exploration-stage company engaged in the oil and gas exploration business. The
Company focuses to undertake oil and gas exploration projects in the continental United States. The Company has
assets in both Texas and Louisiana. It has three producing wells located in Corpus Christi, Texas (the Corpus Christi
Project). The Saratoga Prospect is located in the Saratoga Chalk Formation on the outskirts of the town of Many, in
Sabine Parish, Louisiana.
Contact Info
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. is headquartered at:
5847 San Felipe, Suite 1700, Houston, TX,
77057
United States
(713) 821-1731
www.gcoil.com
Rahim Rayani, CFO
Financial Trends
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Historic Growth Rates
Fiscal Year Ending 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 TTM 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Sales (mil) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.2 $0.1 NA NA NA
EPS (GAAP) ($0.00) ($0.05) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.00) ($0.00) NA NA NA
Dividends/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 NA NA NA
Book Value/Share $0.00 ($0.00) $0.00 ($0.00) $0.00 * $0.00 NA NA NA
Tangible Book Value/Sh. ($0.00) ($0.00) $0.00 ($0.00) $0.00 * $0.00 NA NA NA
Cash Flow/Share ($0.00) ($0.05) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.00) ($0.00) NA NA NA
Free Cash Flow/Share ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.00) ($0.00) NA NA NA
Key Ratios
Historic Averages
Fiscal Year Ending 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 TTM 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
% Sales Growth NA NA NA NM 672.4 3.3 NA NA NA
% EPS Growth 173.1 3,328.9 (96.8) 297.4 (83.9) 72.4 38.9 723.7 NA
% Gross Margin -NM -NM NM NA 82.4 72.4 NA NA NA
% Operating Margin -NM -NM -NM (2,603.4) (240.2) (476.4) NA NA NA
% Tax Rate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 0.0 NA
% Return on Assets (170.9) (5,791.0) (262.0) (75.3) (32.9) (39.4) (123.4) (1,266.4) NA
% Return on Investment 618.2 4,600.8 93.0 (97.3) (43.1) (54.1) (15.8) 1,034.3 NA
% Return on Equity 596.5 4,582.7 93.0 357.8 254.4 NA 235.1 1,176.9 NA
Asset Turnover 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 NA
Receivables Turnover NA NA 0.0 11.6 NM NA NA NA NA
Inventory Turnover NM NM -NM NA NM NA NA NA NA
Equity Information
Whether you are willing to accept companies that have or don't have major shareholders with controlling ownership blocks,
multiple classes of common, or convertible debt or preferred issues is a matter of individual preference. Look here for
anything along these lines that might make you more or less inclined to invest in this company.
Common Stock $.001 Par, 5/08, 1B auth., 999,952,788 issd. Insiders own approx. 2%. 10/02, 5-for-1 stock split. 11/03, 1-for-220
reverse stock split. 7/05, 3-for-1 stock split.
Analyst Footnotes
Look for accounting changes, restructurings,
etc.which may affect how useful historic data is
inassessing future company prospects.
10/2003, Company name changed from First Cypress,
Inc.
Peer Comparison
This table gives an indication of how Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. stands in key respects compared with companies in the Oil & Gas Operations Industry
Company Name (Ticker)
Last Fiscal Year
Revenue (mil)
Current Fiscal
Year Projected
Revenue (mil)
Projected
Price/Sales Operating EPS
Current Fiscal
Year Projected
EPS
P/E Based on
Current Year
Estimates
EPS % Growth
Previous 5 Years
EPS % Growth
Next 5 Years
Gulf Coast Oil ... (GCOG) $0.2 NA NA ($0.00) NA NA NA NA
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) $404,552.0 $711,450.6 0.7 $7.28 $9.33 9.4 35.1 4.7
TOTAL S.A. (FP) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDSA) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
BP plc (BP.) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
ConocoPhillips (COP) $194,495.0 NA NA $7.22 NA NA 58.6 NA
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. (OTC:GCOG) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research
Getting Acquainted
Start your analysis by learning what the company does, how well it does it, where it stands relative to peers, and whether aspects of the corporate structure or capitalization are
bothersome to you.
June 23, 2008 Page 2
1 Year Price Chart with Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength
Technical analysts believe a narrowing of the bands suggests a significant price movement, up or down, will soon occur. Also, many say stocks that move outside the bands and then
back inside will soon move toward the opposite band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates the strength of the current price movement compared to other recent moves and
may signal when a trend is unsustainable. Technical analysts also believe RSI peaks/valleys forecast changes in share price trends.
0.002
0.008
0.014
$0.020
19.99
Average Volume
Jul' 07 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan' 08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Volume (mil)
Relative Strength Indicator
50%
100%
Low: .00
High: .02
10 Year Price Chart (Monthly)
6.00
16.00
26.00
$36.00
0.07
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Vol (bil)
5 Year Price Chart (Monthly)
0.40
1.30
2.20
3.10
$4.00
0.09
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Vol (bil)
6 Month Price Chart (Daily)
0.004
0.008
0.012
0.016
$0.020
25.81
Jan' 08 Feb Mar Apr May Vol (mil)
1 Month Price Chart (Daily)
0.0034
0.0038
0.0042
0.0046
$0.0050
14.83
May' 08 Jun Vol (mil)
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. (OTC:GCOG) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research
Share Price Trends
Stock price trends depict the collective opinion of the investment community. You don't have to agree with consensus views but seeing how others feel can help you decide what to
look for as you go further in your analysis. Consider it similar to reading a review before seeing a movie.
June 23, 2008 Page 3
52 Week Price History
0.002
0.008
0.014
$0.020
20.02
Average Volume
Jul' 07 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan' 08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Volume (mil)
200 Day Moving Average
50 Day Moving Average
Price History
Calendar Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
High Price NA NA 20.00 36.67 13.67 0.42 0.17 0.17 0.02
Low Price NA NA 0.47 1.20 0.22 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00
Year End Price NA NA 1.35 4.00 0.25 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.00
High P/E NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Low P/E NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Year End P/E NA NA NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Dividend Yield NA NA NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Price Performance
When stocks significantly beat or trail the S&P 500 or the industry, investors are looking more intently at company- specific
matters than general-market factors. In the two percentile rank columns, a high "Rank in Industry" coupled with a low
"Industry Rank" could signify a hot stock in a cold industry. The reverse, is also noteworthy.
Time Period
Actual
Change
Percent
Change
vs.
S&P 500
vs.
Industry
Rank in
Industry
Industry
Rank
4 Week 0.00 2.3% 6.8% (1.1)% 48 90
13 Week 0.00 1,025.0% 1,052.2% 738.8% 98 97
26 Week 0.00 462.5% 538.6% 320.1% 98 97
52 Week 0.00 18.4% 35.0% (19.0)% 46 96
Year To Date 0.00 542.9% 616.2% 381.0% 97 97
BarChartKey Rank Key
YTDR4 Wk. WorstRBest 1R100
Short Interest
A high or increasing short interest implies that many investors expect the stock price to decline. You can treat that as a
warning. Or you can disagree with the crowd and buy stocks with high short interest in anticipation of a short squeeze (a rally
that occurs when short sellers rush to buy a stock, fearing losses they might incur if they wait too long). Prospects for a
squeeze are indicated by high readings in the "Days to Cover" column (which tells how many days it would take for all short
interest positions to be covered if recent trading volume levels persist). The risk: The bears may be right. So research other
aspects of the company.
Month Shares % Outstanding Percent of Float Days to Cover
May 2008 NA NA NA
April NA NA NA
March NA NA NA
February NA NA NA
Insider Trading
Insider buying can be seen as bullish because,
presumably, their company knowledge is superior.
However, insider sales are less reliable because
insiders may sell for a variety of reasons that have
nothing to do with their opinion of the stock.
In the last 6 months, there have been NA insider
purchases for a total of NA shares, and there have been
NA insider sales for a total of NA shares.
Net Change (6 months) NA mil
6 Month Net Transactions NA
Institutional Ownership
It's worthwhile to know what institutions are doing
simply because their stock positions can be so
large. In the short term, stocks will perform well if
institutions are buying and perform poorly if
institutions are selling.
NA institutions own NA of the 1.00 billion common
shares outstanding.
Net Change (3 month) NA
Net Purchases (3 month) NA mil
Shares Purchased (3 month) NA mil
Shares Sold (3 month) NA mil
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. (OTC:GCOG) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research
General Sentiment
You can follow popular opinion or choose a contrarian's strategy. Either way, you should know whether the Street is bullish or bearish. Investor sentiment is typically positive when
the 50-day moving average is rising, especially if it's also above the 200-day moving average. Additionally, changes in price trend can be deemed more definitive if supported by
higher than normal volume.
June 23, 2008 Page 4
Viewing Things In Context
Many people erroneously work with valuation ratios calculated based on numbers that aren't truly representative of a company's underlying sustainable financial characteristics. Thus
it's important to determine if today's sales and EPS are significantly depressed or elevated due to temporary factors such as business cycles. Higher ratios can be tolerated if sales and
EPS are temporarily depressed. But if the company is experiencing unsustainable boom conditions, seek lower ratios. GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
Fiscal Year Ending 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08E 12/31/09E
Sales/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 NA NA
Price/Sales NA NA NM NM NM 58.77 2.41 NA NA
EPS (GAAP) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.05) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.00) NA NA
P/E (GAAP) NA NA NM NM NM NM NM NA NA
EPS (Normalized) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.00) ($0.05) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.00) NA NA
P/E (Normalized) NA NA NM NM NM NM NM NA NA
Dividend Yield (%) NA NA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
Valuation Based On Growth
The faster a company grows, the higher its stock's P/E can be. Contrary to popular belief, PEG (P/E over Growth Rate) need not always be 1.00 or less. But all else being equal, lower is
better (and 3.00 is usually too high). Try to favor company PEGs that are lower than industry and market PEGs. In all cases, watch for very high growth estimates. If overly optimistic
projections get cut, PEG would wind up being higher. FY = Fiscal Year.
Price/EPS (Est.) for Current FY Price/EPS (Est.) for Next FY Long Term Growth Estimate Next FY P/E over LT Growth
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. NA NA NA NA
Oil & Gas Operations 16.76 14.33 11.53 1.40
S&P 500 16.96 14.06 12.26 1.29
Comparative Valuation Ratios
Valuation below industry or S&P 500 averages can be attractive - unless the company is materially worse in terms of quality
growth prospects. Year-by-year trends in comparative valuations can give clues about company merit. Be especially on guard
if comparative ratios are deteriorating over time. On the other hand, relatively low valuations that are moving toward the
averages might indicate that the market is tuning in to heretofore under-appreciated company merit.
FY = Fiscal Year, TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc.
Price/
Earnings
Price/
Sales
Price/
Book
Price/
Cash Flow
Price/
Tang. Book
Price/Free
Cash Flow
Trailing 12 Months NA 35.43 * 112.50 NA * 128.57 NA
FY Ending 12/31/07 NM 2.41 61.24 (1.53) 61.24 (1.97)
FY Ending 12/31/06 NM 58.77 (4.35) (2.39) (4.35) (2.63)
FY Ending 12/31/05 NM NM NM (18.19) NM (15.42)
FY Ending 12/31/04 NM NM (19.44) (1.38) (19.44) (30.00)
Bar Chart Key
2004RTTM
Oil & Gas Operations
Price/
Earnings
Price/
Sales
Price/
Book
Price/
Cash Flow
Price/
Tang. Book
Price/Free
Cash Flow
Trailing 12 Months 23.54 5.36 * 4.04 13.23 * 4.33 39.92
FY Ending 2007 21.21 3.75 2.92 9.02 2.93 4.29
FY Ending 2006 12.83 3.10 3.14 6.49 2.75 1.30
FY Ending 2005 16.95 3.87 3.52 8.89 3.69 7.13
FY Ending 2004 16.18 3.45 2.43 7.90 2.56 10.45
Bar Chart Key
2004RTTM
S&P 500
Price/
Earnings
Price/
Sales
Price/
Book
Price/
Cash Flow
Price/
Tang. Book
Price/Free
Cash Flow
Trailing 12 Months 18.60 2.58 * 3.97 13.28 * 8.12 28.35
FY Ending 2007 22.13 2.75 4.06 14.68 5.74 26.78
FY Ending 2006 20.57 2.84 3.75 13.79 5.34 29.25
FY Ending 2005 23.82 3.21 4.24 16.07 6.16 21.32
FY Ending 2004 25.60 3.38 4.04 16.51 5.80 24.58
Bar Chart Key
2004RTTM
Dividends
Dividend is the most classic basis for
stockvaluation, and high dividend yields are
usuallydeemed preferable. Today, with many
companiesreinvesting profits back into the
business, moderateor low yields can be accepted if
dividends growrapidly. The main risk is that poor
performance willcause the dividend to be cut or
omitted. A very highpayout ratio is one warning
signal. Another is ayield that is very high relative to
industry peers.
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
GCOG Industry
Current Dividend Yield NA 1.4%
5 Yr. Avg. Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.9%
5 Yr. Dividend Growth Rate NA 31.8%
TTM Payout Ratio NA 8.1%
5 Yr. Average Payout Ratio NA 7.3%
Liquid Assets
Get a general sense of the extent to which the
stockprice is offset by the presence of assets that
can beconverted to cash immediately or in the near
future. Often, these ratios will not be meaningful.
Most companies are valued as ongoing businesses,
rather than liquidation/buyout prospects. If you're
lookingat an especially troubled company, be aware
that seemingly liquid-asset windfalls can be
dissipatedby continuing operating losses and/or
shutdown costs.
Price to ... GCOG Industry
General Working Capital (26.5) (5.4)
(current assets minus current liabilities)
Net Working Capital (4.7) (4.5)
(current assets minus all liabilities)
Cash (& cash equivalents) 32.1 40.1
Cash minus total debt (7.0) (8.2)
Cash minus all liabilities (4.1) (3.3)
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. (OTC:GCOG) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research
Stock Price Rationale
Determine if the stock price is justified by: growth-based value, comparative value, liquid assets, or dividends. The better the company, (in terms of growth or quality), the higher the
valuation measures can be. And if valuation ratios are extremely low, double-check to see if the company appears excessively weak. In any case, you don't have to say yes to any
valuation measure - many buy shares based on other factors (e.g., growth). But if you do that, at least understand what you're doing and consider the risks.
June 23, 2008 Page 5
Growth Rates (%)
Investors are accustomed to looking at EPS growth. Check sales growth, too. EPS gains can't persist indefinitely without good sales growth. Do further investigation if sales trends are
falling short. (A big short fall might reflect a divestiture. On the other hand, if sales growth looks too good, check to see if it's being boosted by an acquisition.) Also, compare sales
growth to capital spending growth. Over a prolonged period, it's reasonable to expect capital spending growth to more or less keep pace with sales growth. If the latter is significantly
higher, capital spending may have to accelerate in the next few years.
% Growth Rate GCOG Industry Sector S&P 500
Company Rank
in Industry
GCOG
vs. Industry
GCOG
vs. Sector
GCOG
vs. S&P 500
Sales Growth For Most Recent Quarter (99.0) 42.1 35.0 14.5 1
Sales Growth For Trailing 12 Months 3.3 28.2 21.4 16.4 40
Sales Growth For Past 5 Years NA 35.2 24.7 15.8 NA NA NA NA
Capital Spending Growth for Past 5 Years NA 44.0 27.7 14.2 15 NA NA NA
EPS Growth for Most Recent Quarter 70.1 29.5 23.2 13.0 NA
EPS Growth for Trailing Twelve Months 72.4 14.1 13.8 12.4 NA
EPS Growth for Past 5 Years NA 54.5 51.1 24.6 NA NA NA NA
WorstRBest = Co. underperforming = Co. outperforming
Company Quality
Some companies excel in obtaining high margins (watch out for very low tax rates, which may reflect special benefits that often won't persist indefinitely) while others are highly
efficient. Still others are strong in both respects. These trade-offs are balanced in the Management Effectiveness returns, which combine both factors. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Profitability Ratios (%) GCOG Industry Sector S&P 500
Company Rank
in Industry
GCOG
vs. Industry
GCOG
vs. Sector
GCOG
vs. S&P 500
Gross Margin for Trailing Twelve Months 72.4 67.9 39.7 44.5 53
Gross Margin for Past 5 Years 0.5 64.9 37.0 44.1 76
Operating Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (476.4) 33.0 23.2 18.4 NA
Operating Margin for Past 5 Years (2,952.2) 33.1 20.6 18.9 NA
EBITD Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (337.0) 53.6 33.1 23.5 NA
EBITD Margin for Past 5 Years (2,849.4) 52.0 30.5 22.8 13
Pretax Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (476.4) 28.6 20.4 17.1 NA
Pretax Margin for Past 5 Years (2,952.2) 30.3 19.4 18.2 NA
Net Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (476.4) 18.8 14.5 12.3 NA
Net Margin for Past 5 Years (2,952.2) 19.8 12.9 12.7 NA
Effective Tax Rate for Trailing Twelve Months NA 35.0 35.8 29.9 NA NA NA NA
Effective Tax Rate for Past 5 Years NA 33.6 34.2 30.8 NA NA NA NA
Efficiency Ratios (TTM) GCOG Industry Sector S&P 500
Company Rank
in Industry
GCOG
vs. Industry
GCOG
vs. Sector
GCOG
vs. S&P 500
Asset Turnover 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 27
Receivables Turnover NA 7.8 9.4 10.5 NA NA NA NA
Inventory Turnover NA 13.1 19.3 12.5 NA NA NA NA
Revenue/Employee $NA $3,022,644 $3,039,694 $1,007,904 16 NA NA NA
Net Income/Employee $NA $582,871 $368,984 $125,004 NA NA NA NA
Management Effectiveness Ratios (%) GCOG Industry Sector S&P 500
Company Rank
in Industry
GCOG
vs. Industry
GCOG
vs. Sector
GCOG
vs. S&P 500
Return on Assets for TTM (39.4) 7.8 12.1 9.0 20
Return on Assets for Past 5 Years (256.7) 9.0 10.7 8.3 4
Return on Investment for TTM (54.1) 9.3 15.5 12.7 17
Return on Investment for Past 5 Years (447.5) 10.6 13.6 11.9 99
Return on Equity for TTM NA 16.0 24.3 21.2 NA NA NA NA
Return on Equity for Past 5 Years NA 20.3 22.9 19.7 NA NA NA NA
WorstRBest = Co. underperforming = Co. outperforming
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio (cash and marketable securities divided by current liabilities) and Current Ratio (all current assets divided by current liabilities) give a sense of how readily the company
could cover current obligations if the sales were to stop. Higher ratios indicate greater liquidity. Different businesses have different cash inflow-outflow characteristics, so compare
companies to industry averages. Similar comparisons are relevant for debt ratios (higher ratios indicate more debt and, hence, more financial risk) and interest coverage (lower
numbers signify greater risk).
GCOG Industry Sector S&P 500
Company Rank
in Industry
GCOG
vs. Industry
GCOG
vs. Sector
GCOG
vs. S&P 500
Quick Ratio 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 26
Current Ratio 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 37
Total Debt to Equity 2,160.0 60.7 46.2 79.5 1
Long Term Debt to Equity 2,160.0 58.4 41.2 59.5 1
Interest Coverage NA 12.0 17.8 14.1 NA NA NA NA
WorstRBest = Co. underperforming = Co. outperforming
Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. (OTC:GCOG) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research
Footprints of Success
In many respects, business success requires subjective judgment. However, over time, good companies tend to leave good footprints, which become most visible when company data
is compared to industry/sector/market benchmarks. That's how you see when companies perform well, not just because a rising business tide lifts all boats, but because the company
is doing unique, good things. Look, too, at time-series comparisons, and take note of companies that are improving faster or suffering less than peers.
June 23, 2008 Page 6
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