Eye, i would agree w your "price assessments". Here's my analysis based on company info and my intrepretation of the data. BTW, I'm really focusing in on fundamentals; not so much speculative hope although its obviously there to some degree. Anyway, here's my take (IMO):
Company has confirmed they can process 5,000 tons of material a day.
Company has confirmed "high" copper content in excess of 1%; maybe even as high as 1.5%+.
Company has confirmed that "credit" metals such as gold, silver, moly, tungstun etc will provide revenues to pay for all operating expenses of mill.
Company has installed magnitite mill for extraction of iron from ore that will increase revenue $5-$10m.
Based on these factors here is the revenue / profit pro forma:
Full Production of ore / revenue (2009)
5000 tons = 10,000,000 lbs of ore per day
10,000,000 lbs of ore @ .0125% ave grade = 125,000 lbs of copper per day
125,000 lbs of copper @ $3.50 = $437,500 per day
$437,500 per day for 300 days a year = $131,250,000 Gross Profit
$131,250,000 less 35% taxes = $85,312,500 Net Profit
(remember other credit metals pay for overhead etc plus iron magnatite mill will add $5-$10m in revenues)
Projected stock price
$85,312,500 / 1,800,000,000 shrs outstanding = .0474 eps
.0474 eps multiplied by P/E of 20 = .95 per shr
.0474 eps multiplied by P/E of 25 = $1.19 per shr
This doesn't account for increased investment/production in the mill over time and doesn't reflect any dividends which, imo, will be paid to investors and should inherently raise the value of the stock. Also, what if they go 24/7?? What if CU goes to $4 which is predicted (and other metal prices increase)?? (yes, i realize prices could go other way, too)
What if they "find" the mother lode that they believe is there...What if BIG company/country comes a callin'....
Just some numbers for everyone to chew over...
I don't think we'll see these prices for much longer...
One last comment; when the stock ran to .39 in Feb I bet everyone looked back and said, wow, if I'd only picked up some shares at .05, .10, .15, .20...well here we are again and the company is much better today and company people are VERY excited!!
jtf
