Tri-Valley Corp (fka TVLYQ)

[jonesieatl]

"the mentioned gentlemen seem to be on the conservative side and do not want expectations to be to high, like last year at Temblor Valley"

That's a good point. But if they don't "want expectations to be too high" , it would seem that eliminating the PRs with the increasing but unverifiable (and unsustainable?) production numbers and publishing the actual numbers via DOGGR would be the correct way to insure that expectations were more closely aligned with reality. Unless my earlier 'kill the shorts 1-2 punch' scenario turns out to be the scenario lol.

Since I spent some time today outlining how the current scenario could well lead to significant additional share price appreciation from here , let me temper that a bit lest someone think I strayed too far from my normal objective 'show me the numbers' stance :)

Since you mentioned Temblor and expectations , we certainly saw building up of expectations in the past , with lack of substantial outcomes to date , unless enhanced Temblor outcomes happened February thru May 2008.

Temblor production monthly average 2005: 2310 bbls
Temblor production monthly average 2006: 2134 bbls
Temblor production monthly average 2007: 2232 bbls

What was PR'd about Temblor Valley , just in 2006 , and not including 2007's PRs about more drillings , test wells and waterflooding , were statements such as:

"Tri-Valley sees two examples of high density and horizontal drilling on similar acreage blocks in the area that each produce well in excess of 4,000 barrels per day and it plans to follow that approach in developing its property."

"Through reworking more than 60 existing wells on these properties, drilling perhaps hundreds of new wells and modern technology, we expect to deliver exceptional new value to Tri-Valley shareholders."

"estimates the potential recovery from an average 200 feet of pay within its lease boundaries could be in the range of 30 million barrels or more for Tri-Valley and its partners"

""It is our goal to work over 28 idle wells, drill four core wells, and two horizontal wells yet this year on our Temblor Valley property with the aim of reaching 1,200 barrels of oil per day from just that one property," Blystone said."

"This is designed to exponentially increase production from the Temblor Valley properties"

"estimate 300 million barrels of oil in place in the zone for some percentage of recovery which, with modern methods, could exceed 10 percent."

"would potentially add another five million barrels on the Company’s recovery model for the Temblor property."

"Tri-Valley originally estimated its 700-ace lease block adjoining the prolific South Belridge Oil Field held approximately 300 million barrels of oil in place based on an estimated 200 feet of high porosity diatomite interval. But the thicker interval suggests the possibility of perhaps twice that amount in place but it is doubtful all of the zone will be productive."

But now many things have changed.

Except for the "expectations part" , which has certainly been built up relative to PV with the sequential PRs citing specific-day production numbers (that might or might not be sustained initially).

And the part about actually seeing for a certainty what is "overdelivered".

I guess that's the flip side to the coin , the other side being the happy possible scenario I described earlier which could result in a short squeeze.

JMO

jonesie