Wednesday, June 18, 2008 11:25:17 AM
One other note on the short interest ...
... just to make sure I beat it to death LOL
As we saw in my graphics recapping the changes in share prices , volumes and short interest within the Russell-timeframes for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 , the shorts have weathered some significant spikes in the past.
In 2005 they came out of a run-up to low $14's with a significantly higher short interest (1,000,000 shares higher in fact) and a period of falling prices. It's almost like they waited for the peak price then shorted/sold a whole lot of shares into the Russell-buyin (to the Index funds themselves perhaps?) , then had the opportunity to cover some of those at lower prices later on and book a profit.
In 2006 we saw them weather a pre-Russell run to $9.50 , then a Russell-sell-out price of $8.25 , coming out of that with a significantly lower short interest and , again , another period of falling prices. One might even speculate that a really smart-big short could have shorted in June of 2005 in the low $14's and maintained his short for a year , covering in June of 2006 at $8.25 , pocketing over $6 per share while retail shareholders and Russell-indexed funds all lost $6 per share.
2007 was a Russell non-event for TIV , even though it saw some buying in advance of the cut-off date. Short interest was roughly the same pre- and post-Russell , and the share prices were roughly the same as well.
So , now we come to 2008 and a definite TIV Russell-event , with the peak 'buy-in price' yet to be determined. It will be very interesting to see , after the fact of course , if changes in short interest mirror the changes which occurred in 2005 , at least in direction if not in magnitude as well.
While one might infer that the entities behind the short interest are not cowed by runs to $8's or $9's or even $14's .... they certainly have taken advantage of the BIGGER opportunities the Russell-related PPS-movements have afforded them.
JMO
jonesie
Yorkville / Cornell Tracking Board #board-9964
"I can think of no more valuable commodity than information"
... just to make sure I beat it to death LOL
As we saw in my graphics recapping the changes in share prices , volumes and short interest within the Russell-timeframes for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 , the shorts have weathered some significant spikes in the past.
In 2005 they came out of a run-up to low $14's with a significantly higher short interest (1,000,000 shares higher in fact) and a period of falling prices. It's almost like they waited for the peak price then shorted/sold a whole lot of shares into the Russell-buyin (to the Index funds themselves perhaps?) , then had the opportunity to cover some of those at lower prices later on and book a profit.
In 2006 we saw them weather a pre-Russell run to $9.50 , then a Russell-sell-out price of $8.25 , coming out of that with a significantly lower short interest and , again , another period of falling prices. One might even speculate that a really smart-big short could have shorted in June of 2005 in the low $14's and maintained his short for a year , covering in June of 2006 at $8.25 , pocketing over $6 per share while retail shareholders and Russell-indexed funds all lost $6 per share.
2007 was a Russell non-event for TIV , even though it saw some buying in advance of the cut-off date. Short interest was roughly the same pre- and post-Russell , and the share prices were roughly the same as well.
So , now we come to 2008 and a definite TIV Russell-event , with the peak 'buy-in price' yet to be determined. It will be very interesting to see , after the fact of course , if changes in short interest mirror the changes which occurred in 2005 , at least in direction if not in magnitude as well.
While one might infer that the entities behind the short interest are not cowed by runs to $8's or $9's or even $14's .... they certainly have taken advantage of the BIGGER opportunities the Russell-related PPS-movements have afforded them.
JMO
jonesie
Yorkville / Cornell Tracking Board #board-9964
"I can think of no more valuable commodity than information"
Yorkville / Cornell Tracking Board #board-9964
"I can think of no more valuable commodity than information"
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