I'm basing my thoughts on IAHL/Thrush being a real deal.
First off, I don't remember seeing anywhere that 5/31 was a deadline. I think that came from someone's discussion on the phone. I could be wrong there.
Second, I don't know that 5/31 was even a realistic deadline to complete the deal. My last commercial property purchases took more than 6 months to complete. Just too many people need and want to stick themselves into the process and slow it down. Attorneys were (and are) the worst. They take to week to say something is ok when they could do it in a few minutes. And, inevitably, you have to chase them down to get the answers. That doesn't even address if you are going into environmentals and financing. Those can add significant time to a deal. I'm aiming to close on a property that the deal was signed 11/07. We are hoping for mid July if nobody else wants to put a wrench into things.
And then there is that whole inserting yourself into something. It's already been seen that there are parties who would love to get into the middle of things and likely sour the deal. There was a PR about some of that. Now, if you keep your mouth shut and don't tell everyone what is going on, the people outside the loop don't know where to meddle. That makes perfect sense to me. When making a deal, I don't tell anyone about it until its DONE. At any point before things close, it's possible for someone to scuttle the whole thing. Contracts have out clauses and they can be triggered by people inside or outside the deal.
My real-world take on this deal was 9-12 months to complete. That's still a ways off. It's possible to do it faster if you ride everyone to do it. But, from what we are told, there is a lot to deal with and take care of. There necessarily are a ton of people working on a deal of this size. Many of them are also going to want a piece of the action.
My current personal opinion here is that there is something real that may or may not come to pass. I don't see the usual pink sheet pump and dump here. That doesn't mean that it won't happen and that it's not the original goal. The sum here just isn't adding up to P&D in my book. It's actually looking like how I would do a deal.
I'm holding for now. I still like it and I don't have a problem in the world with the silence for now. I think any word could have detrimental impact on a deal. Let the shares drop. Maybe the company will buy them back at the lower levels.
