Monday, June 16, 2008 9:47:35 AM
Probable Russell-related price action?
Since 2005 is the year TIV was added to the Russell for the first time , the price action occurring then is possibly at least marginally relevant to the present.
I added a data point to the 2005 Russell chronology graphic , showing TIV's PPS when the prelim. additions were announced.
From that point until the day before the official Reconstitution , (after which 'tightly-indexed' funds quickly bought in per their funds' charters) , TIV's PPS rose from $11.88 to $13.44 for a 13% increase.
Then of course the PPS popped to $14.30 the next day on official Recon. Day , for an overall 20% increase for quick traders , (or was that only for negotiated after-hours sellers?) before beginning a return to the $10 level.
re: that after-hours buy-in in 2005 , note the increase in the short interest between 6/10 and 7/12 .... up nearly 800,000 shares. One might interpolate that at least one possible scenario was an arranged transaction between shorts and Russell-related index funds on Reconstitution Day. It will be interesting to see those data points this year.
At any rate , joining the Russell certainly gave at least a short-term increase in the PPS , and perhaps with TIV potentially having more productive irons in the fire now than they did then , there could be announcements resulting in some PPS upwards follow-through this time.
JMO
jonesie
Since 2005 is the year TIV was added to the Russell for the first time , the price action occurring then is possibly at least marginally relevant to the present.
I added a data point to the 2005 Russell chronology graphic , showing TIV's PPS when the prelim. additions were announced.
From that point until the day before the official Reconstitution , (after which 'tightly-indexed' funds quickly bought in per their funds' charters) , TIV's PPS rose from $11.88 to $13.44 for a 13% increase.
Then of course the PPS popped to $14.30 the next day on official Recon. Day , for an overall 20% increase for quick traders , (or was that only for negotiated after-hours sellers?) before beginning a return to the $10 level.
re: that after-hours buy-in in 2005 , note the increase in the short interest between 6/10 and 7/12 .... up nearly 800,000 shares. One might interpolate that at least one possible scenario was an arranged transaction between shorts and Russell-related index funds on Reconstitution Day. It will be interesting to see those data points this year.
At any rate , joining the Russell certainly gave at least a short-term increase in the PPS , and perhaps with TIV potentially having more productive irons in the fire now than they did then , there could be announcements resulting in some PPS upwards follow-through this time.
JMO
jonesie
Yorkville / Cornell Tracking Board #board-9964
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