AI
Sunday, June 15, 2008 6:31:27 PM
rockitt, with DPDW imo you're witnessing the very early life-cycle of a company headed for the big boards. some shift in ownership will likely take place as the company grows. over time, insiders will probably own less and institutions more. in any event, let's start with a base understanding that no one would willingly sell shares in a way that could hurt the stock price, be they insiders or institutional investors, because to do so would only reduce the value of their remaining stock.
you saw my post regarding the two options for how management might monetize their holdings. insiders can sell large blocks to institutional investors (probably in out-of-market exchanges), thereby locking in gains and distributing ownership across a wider base (something that would make you feel more at ease) or they might hang on longer and get paid all at once in a buyout. in that case we all would get the same price. either way, i don't see cause for concern.
here's why i suggested selling if you don't like the amount of shares owned by insiders: i doubt you have any other alternative. this is what makes a market. the share structure has never been a mystery, since day one, and is especially clear now that all preferreds have been converted to commons. what you see is what you get. obviously institutional investors who took part in the private placement aren't bothered by large insider positions, or they never would have financed the company to the tune of $40M. the very thing you describe as "unhealthy" or "outlandish" dahlman rose finds very bullish.
is it your prerogative to raise doubts and fears on this message board? of course it is. but don't expect those of us who have done extensive DD for more than a year to consider the point you raised a revelation, and please don't expect us to try to change your mind. all i can tell you is why i'm more bullish today than i've ever been, and the rest is up to you.
the article from friday posted in the link below contains language that should be underscored imo:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29996502
robert chamberlain said he thinks the product lines from each of three acquisitions: the core/ewave (umbilicals), mako (ROV rentals), and FT (buoyancy), could grow to $100M each over three to five years. in fact, they hope to create a $1B company in five years. those of us familiar with DPDW have heard this before, so it's no surprise, but what would that equate to in terms of the share price?
let's say the OS is 200M in 2013 and net margins are 15%...
1000 X .15 = 150M net profit/200M OS = .75 eps X 25 (or whatever multiple you think is appropriate**) = $18.75/share.
that's a fairly good ROI for anyone buying in 2008 and holding for 5 years. jmho.
**OII has a 23 pe ratio and does 1.83B annually:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=OII
you saw my post regarding the two options for how management might monetize their holdings. insiders can sell large blocks to institutional investors (probably in out-of-market exchanges), thereby locking in gains and distributing ownership across a wider base (something that would make you feel more at ease) or they might hang on longer and get paid all at once in a buyout. in that case we all would get the same price. either way, i don't see cause for concern.
here's why i suggested selling if you don't like the amount of shares owned by insiders: i doubt you have any other alternative. this is what makes a market. the share structure has never been a mystery, since day one, and is especially clear now that all preferreds have been converted to commons. what you see is what you get. obviously institutional investors who took part in the private placement aren't bothered by large insider positions, or they never would have financed the company to the tune of $40M. the very thing you describe as "unhealthy" or "outlandish" dahlman rose finds very bullish.
is it your prerogative to raise doubts and fears on this message board? of course it is. but don't expect those of us who have done extensive DD for more than a year to consider the point you raised a revelation, and please don't expect us to try to change your mind. all i can tell you is why i'm more bullish today than i've ever been, and the rest is up to you.
the article from friday posted in the link below contains language that should be underscored imo:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29996502
robert chamberlain said he thinks the product lines from each of three acquisitions: the core/ewave (umbilicals), mako (ROV rentals), and FT (buoyancy), could grow to $100M each over three to five years. in fact, they hope to create a $1B company in five years. those of us familiar with DPDW have heard this before, so it's no surprise, but what would that equate to in terms of the share price?
let's say the OS is 200M in 2013 and net margins are 15%...
1000 X .15 = 150M net profit/200M OS = .75 eps X 25 (or whatever multiple you think is appropriate**) = $18.75/share.
that's a fairly good ROI for anyone buying in 2008 and holding for 5 years. jmho.
**OII has a 23 pe ratio and does 1.83B annually:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=OII
