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Re: 3xBuBu post# 25874

Wednesday, 06/11/2008 11:42:33 PM

Wednesday, June 11, 2008 11:42:33 PM

Post# of 72979
Market Update 080611
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:30 pm : Wednesday was an ugly session for Wall Street, with the Dow dropping more than 200 points as financial stocks fell on renewed write-down concerns. Oil prices surged 4.0% and commodities advanced 2.7%, which fueled increased concerns over global inflation and interest rate increases.

Crude oil rallied $5.33 to $137.19 per barrel, marking a year-to-date increase of 42% and a one-year gain of 107%. The government reported a larger-than-expected decrease in inventory stockpiles for the week ended June 6, which increased supply concerns. Commodities (+2.7%) as a whole spiked, with grains gaining 5.5%. Wet weather and flooding is expected to decrease crop yields.

On top of supply concerns, a 0.6% slide in the dollar helped add to the buying interest in commodities. The dollar saw the bulk of its losses after a European Central Bank official noted it is ready to "step up" rates if inflation data warrants an increase.

The Fed continued to hint it is likely done cutting rates, and its next move will be an increase. Specifically, Fed Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn said anchoring inflation expectations "is critical" and that the gain in oil prices is raising consumer inflation expectations.

The Fed's Beige Book -- which contains anecdotal economic information from the 12 Fed districts -- expressed evidence of increased inflation. In brief, reports of higher input costs were widespread, with manufacturing firms in several districts passing along some of their higher costs to customers. Economic activity remained "generally weak in late April and May." The book did not provide any surprises, so the market had a limited reaction to the report.

The fears over increased inflation and interest rates sparked a mostly broad-based sell off on Wall Street, as only sector to finish with a gain was energy (+0.8%), benefiting from the climb in crude prices.

There was not much strength in other areas, with 96% of nonenergy stocks within the S&P 500 posting a loss. Oil sensitive areas were hit hard. The Dow Jones Transportation average fell 4.7%, and the Amex Airline Index fell 6.1%. Railroad transportation company Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 103.85, -7.71) plummeted 7% after UBS placed a short-term sell rating on the stock, noting the possibility of a profit warning or earnings miss when the company reports on July 24.

Financials (-3.3%) got hammered on renewed credit market and write-down concerns. Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney -- who has a history of accurate calls -- said on CNBC that she thinks future losses on banks from loans have the potential to be greater than losses from collaterized debt obligations in the first quarter. She added that she feels dividends at all banks are in question. Lehman Brothers (LEH 23.75, -3.75) -- the focal point during the stock market's recent weakness -- fell 14%. The stock was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill -- just one week after Merrill upgraded the name.

In corporate news, Staples (SPLS 24.39, +1.25) was one of the few retailers to post a gain. Investors were pleased to hear Dutch office supply company Corporate Express accepted the latest buyout offer from Staples, worth $4.8 billion at current exchange rates.DJ30 -205.99 NASDAQ -54.93 NQ100 -2.4% R2K -2.0% SP400 -1.8% SP500 -22.95 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2217/658/2.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2577/589/1.39 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices are trading at or near their session lows, in a broad-based retreat. Financials (-2.7%) and telecom (-2.7%) are posting the largest losses.

Weakness is broad-based, with decliners outpacing advancers by 18-to-5 on the NYSE and by more than 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 -173.34 NASDAQ -46.55 SP500 -18.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2125/702/1.70 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2453/686/1.05 bln

3:00 pm : The bulls are not showing much conviction as the market goes back on the retreat. The stock market has traded in negative territory for the entire session.

Washington Mutual (WM 6.32, -0.36) is down 5.4%, and is trading at its lowest level since 1992. The struggling bank is also the most actively traded NYSE listed stock today, with shares changing hands 113 million times -- more than twice its daily average over the last three months.

The Dow Transportation Average (-3.9%) is having a rough day. Railroad transportation company Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 104.67, -6.89) is down 6.2% after UBS placed a short-term sell rating on the stock, noting the possibility of a profit warning or earnings miss on July 24. Transports are up 11% this year and Burlington Northern is up 26% despite today's dip.DJ30 -159.09 NASDAQ -38.67 SP500 -16.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2041/762/1.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2352/770/949 mln

2:30 pm : Broad-based buying interest lifts the stock market, although it is still posting a large loss of roughly 1%. The energy sector stands alone in positive territory.

Crude is up 3.7%, which is a decent-sized retreat from its session high when it was up 5.3%.

Treasuries reversed from their earlier gains, with the 10-year note unchanged after being more than 23 ticks higher in earlier trade.DJ30 -135.72 NASDAQ -34.04 SP500 -13.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2009/799/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2288/808/884 mln

2:05 pm : Stocks are are off their worst levels, but continue to post substantial losses.

The Fed's Beige book -- which contains anecdotal economic information from the various Fed districts -- was just released. The book said consumer spending slowed in March. Five regions reported stable economies, while seven reported softer or sluggish growth. There has been "tighter credit standards" for most loan types. The book reports moderate or limited wage growth.

Separately, the May budget deficit widened to $165.9 billion from $67.7 billion. Economists forecast a deficit of $165 billion.

Fed funds futures suggest a 14% chance the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points on June 25, and an 86% chance that the Fed will leave the rates unchanged at 2.00%.

Crude oil is up 4.7% to $137.48 per barrel, and traded as high as $138.30. Crude is up 43% this year, and is up 108% compared to one year ago.DJ30 -155.74 NASDAQ -37.22 SP500 -15.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2060/728/1.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2386/693/775 mln

1:35 pm : The major indices have climbed off their worst levels, but continue to languish deep in negative territory. Echoing recent comments from other Fed officials, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation is becoming a more pressing concern, while financial market turmoil is waning.

Crude oil hit a fresh session high of $137.86 per barrel, which is just shy of its all-time high of $139.12 that was reached last Friday.

Crude is not the only commodity rallying this session. Corn surged 5.6% to a fresh all-time high as flooding in the Midwest is expected to decrease corn production this year. Meanwhile, wheat has spiked 7.3% and nickel has gained 6.3%.DJ30 -163.24 NASDAQ -38.20 SP500 -15.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1997/774/1.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2305/751/689 mln

12:55 pm : Oil is doing its thing again today, with prices topping $137 per barrel in the past half-hour. The latest leg up in crude futures, which are up more than $6, or 4.6%, today, prompted another leg down in the stock market that saw the major indices establish new session lows.

Not surprisingly, the energy sector (+0.6%) is the lone economic sector trading with a gain at this juncture.

Consistent with recent behavior, the oil refining group (-1.4%) is trailing the sector's performance in noticeable fashion as profit margin concerns persist in the face of rising oil prices.DJ30 -168.46 NASDAQ -40.98 SP500 -17.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1955/786/997 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2295/755/610 mln

12:35 pm : Stocks retreat toward session lows as broad-based selling interest picks up. Commodities are having a better day, with the CRB Index up 2.2% as the dollar slides 0.7%.

The materials sector (-0.6%) is in the red, as agriculture names Monsanto (MON 135.23, -1.11) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 36.99, -0.13) give up their early gains. Alcoa (AA 40.14, -2.58) is one of the worst performing stocks after being downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.DJ30 -164.71 NASDAQ -35.40 SP500 -16.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1955/781/971 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2287/745/613 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks opened slightly lower and then plummeted as crude oil prices spiked, financials faltered and the S&P 500 broke the 1350 level -- which is considered a key area of support by technical analysts.

There were more hawkish inflation comments from the Fed today. Fed Vice Chairman Kohn said anchoring inflation expectations "is critical" and that the gain in oil prices is raising consumer inflation expectations.

Crude oil (+3.7% to $136.12) rallied to a 4.2% gain ahead of the weekly energy inventory report. Crude then traded in a choppy manner after the government announced a larger-than-expected decrease in inventory levels.

The spike in prices has weighed on areas sensitive to oil prices, such as the transports (-3.2%) and the consumer discretionary sector (-1.6%). Conversely, the energy sector is up 0.8%.

Weakness is broad-based, with nine of the ten economic sectors posting a loss. Financials are posting the largest decline, as 96% of stocks within the sector fall. Of note, Lehman Brothers (LEH 25.79, -1.71) is plummeting for the second day in a row.

Other areas of weakness include telecom (-1.7%), tech (-1.7%) and industrials (-1.5%). DJ30 -134.75 NASDAQ -28.26 SP500 -12.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1892/795/855 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2200/801/541 mln

11:40 am : The stock market falls back toward session lows as headlines from Fed Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn hit the wires. Kohn said anchoring inflation expectations "is critical" and that the gain in oil prices is raising consumer inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, crude oil climbs higher too, as it is now up 3.4% to $135.86 per barrel. The dollar (-0.6%) slipped as an ECB official commented that they can't rule out further rate steps if data warrant.

Dow component Caterpillar (C 78.92, -1.18) announced that it raised its quarterly dividend by 17% to 42 cents. The increase gives Caterpillar a dividend yield of 2.13% at current levels. The stock saw a modest boost on the news.DJ30 -163.49 NASDAQ -33.65 SP500 -16.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1927/750/779 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2265/714/493 mln

11:00 am : The stock market climbs off of session lows, although losses are still substantial. Crude oil is posting a steep 2.3% gain, but has dipped off its session high of 4.2%.

All ten economic sectors are in negative territory. Telecom (-1.7%) has surpassed financials (-1.2%) as the worst performing sector. Telecom is down the most this week with a 3.9% decline, largely due to disappointment over AT&T's (T 36.79, -0.43) announcement that its profit margins will be under pressure due to its new deal to carry the Apple iPhone.DJ30 -116.35 NASDAQ -21.08 SP500 -10.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1886/711/546 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2190/723/349 mln

10:35 am : The major indices plummet to losses in excess of 1%. Weakness is broad-based, although financials (-2.0%) deserve the bulk of the blame. Selling interest in the S&P 500 was compounded after the index took out the 1350 level -- considered a key level of support by technicians.

Just hitting the wires, crude inventories for the week ended June 6 fell by 4.6 million barrels, which is larger than the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Crude was trading up 3.1% to $135.26 per barrel just prior to the release.

The Ted spread -- which is the difference between three month Treasury and three month U.S. Dollar Libor -- is up 8% to 84 basis points this session as investors are unnerved by the continued decline of Lehman Brothers (LEH 25.31, --2.22). The current level is well off the 52-week high of 240 basis points, but is still above normal levels of between 10 and 50 basis points.DJ30 -148.10 NASDAQ -34.23 SP500 -15.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1839/687/376 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2167/684/249 mln

10:00 am : The major indices extend their opening losses in a mostly broad-based retreat. Financials (-1.3%) are acting as the main drag after providing leadership yesterday. Lehman Brothers (LEH 26.52, -0.98) is down 4% after falling nearly 7% yesterday.

Crude oil extends its gain, as it is trading 2.7% higher at $134.58 per barrel. Crude has had an up or down movement in excess of 1% in 13 of the last 15 sessions.

Only three of the ten sectors are in positive territory. Energy (+0.6%) is getting a boost from the rise in oil, and materials (+0.1%) is outperforming on a relative basis thanks to strength in agriculture stocks. Monsanto (MON 138.82, +2.38) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 37.81, +0.69) are seeing some buying interest after Canadian company Agrium (AGU) increased its second quarter earnings guidance by more than 35%. Monsanto also had its 2008 and 2009 earnings estimates raised at UBS.DJ30 -95.26 NASDAQ -20.62 SP500 -7.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1545/797/169 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1785/940/130 mln

09:35 am : The stock market gets off to a sluggish start on what has been a very slow news day.

Action is likely to pick up, with four Fed officials slated to speak today, and the release of the Fed's Beige Book (2:00 ET). In addition, the government will release its weekly energy inventory data at 10:30 ET. Crude is trading up 2.2% to $134.19 per barrel ahead of the report.DJ30 -49.44 NASDAQ -4.65 SP500 -3.21

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.2.

08:58 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8.

08:26 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures slip a bit, but continue to point to a slightly higher open.

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Futures suggest a slightly higher start to the trading day. Crude prices are up 1.4% to $133.20 ahead of the government's weekly energy inventory report (10:30 ET). Several Fed officials will be speaking today, include Vice Chairman Donald Kohn (11:30 ET). The beige book -- anecdotal evidence on economic conditions -- is set for release at 2:00 ET.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5.

06:21 am : FTSE...5839.90...+12.60...+0.2%. DAX...6776.48...+5.38...+0.1%.

06:21 am : Nikkei...14183.48...+162.31...+1.2%. Hang Seng...23327.60...-47.92...-0.2%.





My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button


My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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