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Re: wecus post# 238622

Sunday, 05/02/2004 6:30:49 PM

Sunday, May 02, 2004 6:30:49 PM

Post# of 704019
The breach of 1940 has definitely caused major technical damage to the market, but it has also been associated with extreme pessimism often seen near bottoms of bear markets (including a very positive divergence Friday on the breach when the Naz failed to produce a GNT, while producing an extremely low short term RSI). I have to wait and see if that damage is repaired or not in the next rally. There are too many forks in the road here to describe all of them and I will therefore have to wait and see how the next ramp develops and then decide if we are going into the major topping process without going to print new highs on the Naz (I am almost sure the Dow will print at least a marginal new high above 10800), or we stall in the 2040/2079 zone. How fast sentiments once more return to values like those seen in early January will also be important, failure of Naz new highs to go above 250/300 in such a ramp will also serve as a possible indicators of "troubles for the original map". Right now, however, the extreme pessimism dictate that a turn up is imminent. Failure to repair the technical damage will move the early October lows to the 1640 area. Watch for a possible change to a full bearish garb on the next ramp.....

AZH

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