Tri-Valley Corp (fka TVLYQ)

[jonesieatl]

Don't make me think about it. LOL

Just kidding, but it's just so close to Friday now it's almost easier just to wait and see what happens than to try and make educated guesses about what might happen.

But you know me! lol .......

If you look back at the recent posts I made showing the chart/PPS action vs Russell-related events for the previous 3 years:

You see in 2005 that in general nobody was really thinking about the Russell Index until Lynn found out (letter, call, Behrooz, Russell, who knows?) and put out a PR about it. Maybe Behrooz 'PR'd' it first in a post on RB or something lol, be easy enough to find out.

Anyway, prior to that announcement the stock was just cycling up and down a couple times in what was then the trading range , from $9.50-$10.xx to $13.50 or so. Even after the announcement the stock barely got back to that $13.50 area to complete a cycle , until the actual 'buy-in' day , at which time we saw a quick blip up to $14.xx then a month later we were back down to $10.00.

In 2006 we of course had the eyeman pump and for the life of me
I don't really understand WHY the Russell would have mattered much because the BEST that was going to happen was TIV was going to stay in which to me would be 'status quo' , right?

Once most folks realized that TIV had probably NOT made it we saw a big sell-off , with the spike up on the 'sell-out' day merely being the specialist exacting a price from an impatient short after hours ... and after that of course things fell down to a lower point than in 2005.

2007 is probably representative of the action which occurs in a 'somewhat manipulated/pumped/bashed/puff-PR'd' stock. T. Gamble might have been 'giving it a shot' but once he realized that he wasn't getting much help (i.e., 'longs' were as usual waiting on someone ELSE to get the stock up for them lol) he stopped ... and since it was absolutely CLEAR that TIV wouldn't make it back into the Russell , 7 trading days after the 'cut-off-date' for TIV's PPS the stock really started tanking , with SOMEbody selling , probably the few who were buying along with T. Gamble.

So, what are we seeing THIS year?

No real pump.

More selling pressure than buying pressure lately.

TIV maybe in , maybe not , and the result will be based solely on just how badly did the cumulative market capitalizations of 3000 other companies tank last year , and did they tank worse than TIV has year-over-year.

TIV's market cap only tanked 21% since last year's Russell 'PPS cut-off' date. If the lowest market cap. in the newest group of 3000 companies is 35% lower this year than it was last year ... TIV's in.

In other words, if Ms. Roberts is correct (and she should have good data) , TIV is in with something to spare. If she's off in one direction by a very small percentage , it will be pretty doggone close.

I'd say if TIV is on the list this Friday you might see some speculative buying in advance of the actual Russell Reconstitution date but those speculators can see the action in past years as easily as we can. I don't think anyone but the 'required' indexed funds will be buying for the long term , so these will be speculative 'traders' perhaps.

Then of course on 'R' day we'll see something but it could well be just as 'organized and controlled' as these events seem to have been in years past.

Oh , on that one question , I don't think 'big boyz' have gotten any word from Russell themselves , Russell is too professional and tight for that , but these guys have got GREAT market data just like Ms. Roberts so I think any interested institutions probably already know one way or the other to a very close mathematical certainty.

All JMO

jonesie