Quantum Fuel Systems Tech fka QTWWQ

[Vasco da Gama]

Why QTWW => $7 - $8 in the short

From yahoo
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_Q/threadview?m=tm&bn=25113&tid=72751&mid=72806&tof=29&rt=2&frt=2&off=1


155MW * $4.10/watt = $635 mil in sales

The $4.10/watt selling price comes from ER's for solar module companies which have recently reported (ie YGE, CSIQ, SOLF, TSL, STP). The price per watt has been rising for the last two quarters. It was about $3.60/watt six months ago, and about $3.85/watt last quarter. (The selling prices for these Chinese solar module manufacturers include foreign currency translation adjustments of about .20/watt since these companies bill customers in Euro's, then translate the revenue etc back to US dollars which is the currency they report in.)

The exciting thing about the projected Asola sales of $600 mil in revenue, is QTWW should receive 33% of the net profit as equity earnings to their P & L. At a 15% net income margin (versus 15% net margins for YGE, CSIQ, SOLF, TSL, STP), Asola would have net profits of $90 mil. QTWW would receive 1/3 of $90 mil, or $30 mil as additional equity earnings to their P&L. At 78.55 mil shs o/s, that's .38 eps. At a conservative 20 PE ratio, that's $7.60. And that does not even include the Asola USA division, nor the Fisker Auto division.

So, in summary, the solar division imo is worth $7.60. I think our current rally is because of the solar biz, Wall Street loves solar.

QTWW => $7 - $8 in the short term imo