RespireRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (RSPI)

[zebra4o1]

My biggest mistakes trading Cortex have been not selling high. I seem to be able to buy low, but in those rare times when Cortex is flying higher and everything looks rosy, I can't seem to sell. I am even tempted to buy more. Got to fight that tendency next time - if there is a next time.

I still feel that your $2.00 target is too low. The average price of a Cortex share over the last 5 years has been about $2.50. We've traded as high as $5.50 two years ago. That is some indication of what people are willing to pay for this story.

In terms of market cap, $2.00 a share would be about $100 million. Two or three times that seems more realistic to me.

If you honestly believe that $2.00 is as good as it gets for clear RD success, then there is little reason to hold Cortex here. With so little upside, it is not worth the downside risks. There is probably only a 20% to 30% chance of having definatively postive RD results.

Wait, here is a $2.00 max scenario - comes out to a probability weighted outcome of $1.00, so mabye it does make sense to own it at 0.75.


Trial------------Probability----Resulting
Outcome----------------------Stock Price

Clear Success------0.30---------$2.00
Murky Positive-----0.25---------$1.00
Murky Negative----0.25---------$0.40
Clear Failure-------0.20----------$0.30

Probability weighted price: $1.01