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Re: Milner post# 726

Thursday, 05/29/2008 10:49:37 AM

Thursday, May 29, 2008 10:49:37 AM

Post# of 1210
There, there you two! I am not either an expert, just followed the sector so long time that some information has got stuck to my two braincells :). As you see, you have learned much all this time you have followed the sector.

As to the Brasilian maritime building program, it is surely big enough to get attention in shipping and drilling markets. But it will realise so far in the future that it will have no direct influence on shipping and drilling, at least in a couple of years. They say they will build self the ships and also the rigs, and as far as I know they have a few very small shipyards and no rig builders today. They must first build the facilities and get the expertise - a deepsea semisubmersible rig is extremely complicated constructure and it takes 3 years to build one, even by an expert rigyard.

But clearly that kind of increase in number of vessels in the seven seas will affect the shipping market in time. Still I think that shipping will remain a fairly profitable business. The dayrates are now unbelievable high - and profitable: a Capesize spot market price $221.000/day when the daily costs are ca $30.000!! - that shippers can well bear some rate lowerings. You have seen that the same rates were ca $40.000 some 6 months ago, so you have certainly learned that shipping is a very volatile sector. The main thing is that the management of the company is capable of handling the volatility.

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