Thanks!
>I like very much your posts.
I've been completely honest and it is not just the usual empty pipe dream postings you see so often. However, because of that, I now have some warnings about this Friday's potential to see a temporary drop in pps of tousq.pk.
Until last week, there has been no official reports showing anything but net postive book value for the company. On filing Chapter 11, the positive value was initially set at 400 million and later scaled back to 100 million. Then the monthly operating report for April came out last week and gave the first official notice that I've seen that book value is negative. Still, monthly reports about asset values are not audited and not official. They are mainly to show cash flow of the debtor in possession and only incidentally show balance sheet values, I believe.
On Thursday, after closing, the SEC annual report for 2007 will be out and it will most likely show a negative book value for the company of about 400 million. Don't fret. It is temporary and will swing back positive for 2008. In fact, Calpine was about 4 billion negative book value and traded for up to $4 per share while that negative.
The 16 cent shares bought today will someday soon sell for $4 easily, but expect them to sell for less than 16 maybe Friday and even later, after this weeks annual report is released IMO. We will see.
If the second lien group is successful in setting aside the 'fraudulent conveyance' transactions of the first lien group, then you can add at least 700 million to book value. I'm guessing the odds are not good that it will happen but no one really knows. If it does and assuming negative 400 current book and a positive 700 debt set aside, you have 300 million positive equaling about a plus $5 per share addition to the pps.
So much for the numbers, what I want to know is what is being said at the first lien holders private meetings about this possible fraudulent conveyance lawsuit and shouldn't they be changing their books to recognize the possibility of a 700 million loss on this loan? I believe it is a serious contingency and should be reported to their shareholders.
