johnbits, you make some excellent points. On the subject of NABI, you said:
"NABI has the cash to support GTCB programs, but what will NABI want in terms of a deal? This would be structured almost the same as a straight equity investment, there does not appear on the surface to be any synergies between NABI and GTCB. They could save on Cox's salary at NABI. So would the deal get done at 44 cents, higher or lower, great question, GTC does not appear to be in a position of bargaining strength"
My only reason for throwing NABI into the mix is that their BOD is talking like they would like to retire. They have a lot of cash from the sale of half the business and have indicated they would not be adverse to selling the other half ... the vaccines against nicotine addiction and staph infection, which are in Phase II I think. You are correct in that a deal, if any, would probably be structured like a straight equity investment, but my impression is that NABI might like it that way. They could merge and then go fishing while GTC continues on.
Given that Cox is the Chairman of the BOD of NABI and one of the other directors (Castaldi) was the founder of BioSurface Technologies (which was devoured by Genzyme), maybe NABI is in a position to be the white knight ... especially if Cox and Castaldi have any misgivings toward Genzyme, which I have no knowledge of but some on the board will know I'm sure. Also, NABI apparently hasn't much to do with their cash because they have embarked on a stock buy back program. (When was the last time you saw a small biotech do that?)
Just a thought.
