Technical Olympic USA, Inc. (TOUS)

[Duffau]

The only way I can see this stock to go to zero is for the the company to be shut down for some wierd reason and then all assets sold off at a firesale. And I just don't see any possibility of that happening. We have highly paid professionals saying the company is worth over 2.2 billion with possibly up to 2.1 billion of debt. And they go to jail if they are lying.

So even if the worst were to happen we still have stock worth at least a buck a share in a liquidation. That's 60 million and the initial filing said they had 400 million equity later modified to only 100 million. And that's valuing the company as an ongoing concern at zero, just assets in a firesale.

No, I have no idea why no one sees value in the shareholders equity. I've looked everywhere for a clue and found nothing. I just don't get it!

In one of the filings, the amount of positive shareholder equity in 2011 under the business plan was presented to the court as an argument as to why the creditors are fully protected and the court redacted that number from the published document. So the business plan thinks that positive equity will be there in 2011 and that's assuming the same crummy real estate environment we have now. What if thing are turning around and the real estate market continues to improve as it did in the last two month?

The court is deciding some key issues today and then financials will be out next week. I expect the court will be generous to the DIP and I expect the financials to show for the first time in this case, that the shareholder equity is in fact below zero -AS MEASURED IN THIS CRUMMY REAL ESTATE ENVIRONMENT. My guess is the Assets will be 1.9 billion and the total liability will be 2.2 billion. But that valuation can change drastically within 6 months. The inventory value can double in a year if the current trend of 2 months continues for 12 months. Then the shareholder equity or net value of assets - liabilities will be positive by about 4 buck a share.

John R. Boken is gonna make me rich!