Aida Pharmaceuticals (AIDA)

[PaperProphet]

I'm definitely a shareholder and I am optimistic. I was just noting that you seemed much more optimistic than I am. For instance, I don't think they will get anywhere close to $7M back from Nanwang. I hope I'm wrong.

It may be that I usually look for all the potential pitfalls in companies first. That may not be the most optimistic way to invest but it's served me very well so far. I scoured a lot of companies before settling on Aida. Aida has a lot of qualities (and lack of negative qualities) for which I look in a company.

As far as Rh-Apo-2L, I'm more of a realist. Obviously their guess of $150M per year with 40% margins would be an obscene amount of money for a stock with only a $20M market cap. Imagine a $0.70 stock earning $2.00 per share per year. If a dozen or so people had confidence in those numbers, the stock wouldn't be anywhere near $0.70. Obviously the validity of those numbers is a question. There are two hurdles that need to be overcome to get there. The first is the effectiveness of Rh-Apo2L and the second is the sales.

For the effectiveness, there are a few clinical trials on Rh-Apo2L which show it seems to be well-tolerated (up to 15mg/kg?) and very effective, especially in conjunction with Rituxan. That bodes well for phase II and III. While I would anticipate the phase II results coming out in a few weeks to be very good, I'm not going to count the chickens before they've hatched.

From there, the sales come into play. That depends on how good the trials say it is and should allow investors to make better guess at the market.

For now I'm taking the 'a bird in the hand...' approach. If Etimicin sales continue to do well, that alone seems to be well worth the $0.70 share price. There's less risk with that. I have a good number of shares--I like lower risk. I would prefer they didn't do anything to jeopardize that. Although if it takes off due to Rh-Apo2L, I won't complain.