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Re: jessellivermore post# 10753

Saturday, 05/10/2008 8:20:27 AM

Saturday, May 10, 2008 8:20:27 AM

Post# of 19309
jesse, drunk or not doofus is probably right.

""we now have broader interest from additional potential partners"

My guess is that GTC is now "negotiating" with a potential "partner" who wants to buy all or part of the operation.

GTC's only alternative is the RS and further placements to stay afloat from one placement to the next. (The prelim proxy clearly states the reasons for RS authorization are to avoid delisting and to facilitate future financings.) The problem with this is by the time there is enough revenue to avoid further placements, the existing shareholders will be diluted into oblivion.

If the RS authorization fails, GTC is out of options. The fire sale is on, or else.

Also, I have not seen anyone comment that Leo is in the driver's seat with Atryn until after FDA approval in HD ... which is anticipated after the present financial crisis is past, one way or the other, and is not lucrative enough to allow GTC to stay afloat anyway. Remember, Leo owns the EMEA approval ... GTC transferred it to them. Leo also owns the Phase II trial for AD ... GTC may only see the data ... and Leo can presumably continue into Phase III and beyond in Europe, the Middle East, and Canada, with or without GTC. The only card GTC holds with Leo is control over the product itself. Leo is certainly aware of GTC's plight, and that may explain their slow progress to date.

LFB, on the other hand, is the 800 pound gorilla in influencing how any shareholder vote goes.

And, even if there is a conventional partnershipe for Atryn in the U.S., any reasonable upfront payment will only put off the inevitable. (I'm sure there are any number of potential partners who would be willing to buy lunch in return for a piece of the pie ... but probably would not be willing to offer much more in this environment.)

There are sevetal possible scenarios, but they all hinge on the RS authorization. That may be why Cox has put off any decision with a "second choice partner" until after the annual meeting. I think the current GTC management desperately wants the RS to happen so they can keep on keeping on until they run out of options.

All this uncertainty is why I chose to become a spectator until the smoke clears. I can testify that role is infinitely more relaxing than being a player. Let the games begin.

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