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Re: Bobwins post# 873

Friday, 05/09/2008 7:02:11 PM

Friday, May 09, 2008 7:02:11 PM

Post# of 2300
I wouldn't call the situation "strength elsewhere in potash". All of the majors (CF, POT, AGU, MOS) are off 10 or more percent since there highs. The non producers for the most part are off more of course. KCL was receiving a lot of favorable press when it was hitting it's high so the selloff could be expected to be more pronounced. I have been buying KCL recently, switching out of some AGP which has been holding in there better. We're up against the "ag bubble is going to burst" headwinds, same folks who were saying that crude oil prices were heading back to $70 when oil was at $90 but now they're all getting scared after Goldman said oil may go to over $200. Same folks who thought the dry bulk shippers were dead and were heavy shorters of DRYS, EXM etc. They're taking it on the chin almost daily in dry bulk stocks and energy stocks, soon they'll be eating their shorts in the Ag area. They of course were encouraged last year by their shorts in some of the base metals (nickel, zinc and lead; though those who shorted LIM learned a hard lesson; now the risks are too high to be shorting BWR or other beaten down metal producers). I believe many of them are now going long in the financials (good luck to them, hope they have deep pockets). Once the large cap ag stocks bounce, KCL and the others will follow. The message remains the same "forget about the US and concentrate on the ever-growing commodity needs of the rest of the World. Patience has and will continue to be rewarded."

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