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Thursday, May 08, 2008 10:36:22 PM
4/15 short interest = 237M shares, 15% of the float, 15 days to cover.
4/15 pps = 2.03
The current uptrend started exactly on 4/15
5/2 pps = 3.20
Weekly vol for 3 weeks: 4/11 - 5/2 = ~ 370M
Weekly vol for 3 weeks: 3/14 - 4/8 = ~ 272M
Therefor ~ 100M extra shares traded those 3 weeks and pps rose ~ 60%.
This week (so far) vol is back down to avg., no 'extra' shares traded.
5/8 pps = 3.23
5/15 pps?
5/15 shorts?
Too bad it is so long between releases of short data.
In theory, with another 100M extra volume by 5/18, if that was the shorts covering, the short interest in LVLT could shrink to a normal size and move LVLT to $4.50+. By this math the target would be ~ 4.87 - $5.05 on the rest of the shorts covering over the next few weeks. More short data please, these #s sound a little high for so soon, right?
Lower the target if they drag it out too long. But think about raising the target going into and hearing about another good Q.
When people see how well they've performed, 2Qs in a row, as proof of having a better handle on integration issues, and proof of the return of good growth, it will be much more than just the shorts moving LVLT.
And if you're lucky you you might get some 2.90s, even 2.76 along the way, but otherwise, imo, sub $3 shares are gone. And I've been wrong on that before! :)
For fun, look at a 10 yr chart, indicators all showing a bottom forming. I also see a lot of room overhead in the weekly chart. The time to be negative about LVLT is almost completely over.
See how giddy I get after a week above $3?
GLTA
If you're not living on the edge, your taking up too much space.
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