oldberkeley,
You asked, "I'm assuming you're leaving with a loss. It's totally OT, FWIW, and something no one is ever proud of, but would you mind giving an approximate percentage"
I don't mind in the least. I sold out this morning at probably a 30% loss on that position, which I acquired over the past two years to replace about 3/4 of a position I had the good judgement to sell out the day before ATryn was rejected by the CHMP in February, 2006. Today's loss was more than offset by that sale two years ago.
I decided to sell out that day in 2006 because things just did not smell right. There had been delays in getting the CHMP decision, and the delays had been explained away by some hard to believe excuses. Does that sound familiar? As it turned out, the delays were caused (through ignorance, arrogance, or both) by GTC changing the protocol in the middle of a Phase III trial. The real story was not disclosed to shareholders until after the damage was done. GTC appealed the CHMP decision and got it reversed ... with the limitation that Atryn cannot be utilized in childbirth in Europe until more data are submitted. As a result Leo has a very limited market in which to sell HD Atryn in Europe at this time, which might explain the disappointing revenues to date.
The stock price took a 100% haircut the next day and never did recover. My perception of management's credibility also took a 100% haircut the next day and never did recover either.
I sold this morning for three reasons. First, I don't think there will be a lucrative partnership anytime in the near future. Second, I think the reverse split (1:4 or 1:5) is an absolute certainty, and for Cox to say otherwise is an insult to our intelligence. Third, I think the reverse split will allow management to begin another series of dilutive financings which will be desperately needed to stay afloat, with or without a partnership, because there will be hardly any revenue for the next two years. (I think the only thing that will change the above is either a buyout or merger, but I am not willing to wait any longer for that possibility.)
If history teaches us anything, the net result in two years or less will be a share price about where it is today, with each of today's holders having significantly fewer shares.
Count me out of that scenario. I will watch the company for the next two years and re-evaluate my position at that time ... IF they are solvent and profitable.
Again, good luck. Maybe I'll be wrong. If so, it won't be the first time. (I can recount other stories where I did not come out as well.)
