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Re: C Patrick post# 246

Thursday, 05/01/2008 3:09:36 PM

Thursday, May 01, 2008 3:09:36 PM

Post# of 431
Something to keep in mind with the new release.....


Not to rain on everyones parade but here are some #'s You can draw your own conclusions.

In 2007 DFNS ANNOUNCED via 3 seperate press releases a combined orders from the Israel Defense Ministry (IDM) of $7.7 million. ($4 in Jan, $2.2 in Feb, $1.5 in July) All of which was SUPPOSE to orginally be delivered by the end of 2007.

At the end of 2006, DFNS had a $1.7 million backlog for the IDM.
So assuming they go thru the entire backlog in 2007 and the $7.7 million in order is gone thru that would mean IDM would do $9.4 million in revenue for DFNS in 2007.

Now we don't know the total that IDM did for DFNS for 2007 as the #'s aren't out.
But thru the first 3 quarter the local military which I would assume is IDM was $7.6 million.
And in their backlog they said they expected $1 million of the current $3.5 million IDM backlog to be delivered in Q4 2007. (Whether it was more or less we won't know until the #'s are out)

So my point is $2.2 million for this year from IDM isn't that much when they did (more likely $9-$10 million for 2007.) Of course this order just announced is for vests and they had orders for other stuff last year. And it is only May 1st so they could have additional orders for other products. But we got to see some real growth in some of the other areas. (And maybe they did in Q4 I don't know.)

I wouldn't call this order a monster #. Its a good # but not monster and that is the only thing that will move this stock UNLESS the earnings come out.

Kind of sad that this news isn't moving the market cause I think it would have had a nice bump in the market had this come after the earnings were released.

I am a holder of DFNS just disappointed in the managements lack of response on the earnings front.
But happy they are at least still selling product.
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