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Re: *~1Best~* post# 7757

Tuesday, 04/29/2008 9:44:37 PM

Tuesday, April 29, 2008 9:44:37 PM

Post# of 19057
Markets consolidated in a narrow range for 2 weeks going into the FOMC announcement tomorrow at 2:15 pm. After the announcement, markets will likely move strong. Nevertheless, we have seen relatively good earning reports especially from international companies, such as "V" and "MA".

It will be interesting market actions even though a pull back is anticipated.

Qs retested the recent high today, near 48 +/- and SPX to 1395 which is at daily R. The SPX daily formation is showing reversal at the ST R 1400 +/-. A pull back going into the next cycle pivot in Jun would be a good vst correction to work off neg D and gaps.
















Techs, MasterCard rise ahead of Fed

A rising dollar helps tech shares but knocks crude oil, gold and copper lower. MasterCard offers blowout earnings. Wednesday's expected interest-rate cut may be the Fed's last for now. Merck shares tumble.
By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

Overall it was another flat day for stocks as Wall Street waited for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. But dig down, and there was plenty of action.

Consider MasterCard (MA, news, msgs), whose stock jumped nearly 13% to $273.98 after the company said quarterly profit more than doubled.

Cardholder spending soared overseas and rose at a more moderate pace in the United States as Americans increasingly turned to plastic in a weak economy. The company said it earned $446.9 million, or $3.38 a share, up from $214.9 million, or $1.57 a share, a year ago.

The report was so big that it erased the bad feelings that drove rival card processor Visa (V, news, msgs) down 6% in after-hours trading last night after the company's growth outlook disappointed investors. Today, however, Visa jumped to $80.88, a 7% gain from Monday.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones industrials fell about 40 points to 12,832. Standard & Poor's 500 Index was off 5 points to 1,391. But the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2 points to 2,426.

Tech stocks were another big story. The Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X) was up 10 points to 1,934. On a percentage basis, it was considerably ahead of the Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500.

Apple (AAPL, news, msgs) jumped 1.6% to $175.05. Research In Motion (RIMM, news, msgs) jumped 3.2% to $126.29. Google (GOOG, news, msgs) added 1.2% to $558.47.

The tech move appears to be the result of the rising dollar, which was up against the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen. Result: Crude oil fell 2.6% to $115.63 a barrel. Gold fell 2.1% to $876.80 an ounce. Copper was off 1.2% to $3.881 a pound.

Commodity stocks tumbled. Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX, news, msgs) fell 4.4% to $110.72. Fertilizer maker Potash of Saskatchewan (POT, news, msgs) dropped 6.2% to $181.49. Seed and agricultural chemical company Monsanto fell 9.1% to $110.93, the second-biggest loss among S&P 500 stocks.

Money had to go somewhere; it went to tech.
Will Wednesday's rate cut be the last?
Wednesday's big story will be the Federal Reserve's move.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee, which began a two-day meeting today, is expected to cut the federal funds rate -- the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans -- to 2% from 2.25%. That's not much of a cut, and most economists see the Fed signaling it won't cut further because it's worried about growing inflation.

The Fed's rate cuts since September are widely regarded as a big reason oil and metals prices are much higher. Crude oil is up about 40% since mid-September. Gold is still about 20% higher than mid-September.

* MSN's Stock Challenge: Win $15,000!

The Fed opened its meeting amid a flurry of worrisome economic news: lower consumer confidence, falling home prices, inflation and high gasoline prices. It has focused on trying to help a slowing economy, a global credit crisis and the mortgage-market meltdown.

The Fed will release its statement Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Energy prices -- New York close Tues. Mon. Chg. Month chg. YTD chg.
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel) $115.63 $118.75 -$3.12 13.83% 20.47%
Heating oil (per gallon) $3.2465 $3.2988 -$0.0523 6.47% 22.54%
Natural gas (per million BTU) $10.8420 $11.3290 -$0.4870 7.34% 44.89%
Unleaded gasoline (per gallon) $2.9392 $3.0307 -$0.0915 12.34% 18.00%

Merck shares slapped on FDA news
The Dow might have finished in the green today if drug company Merck (MRK, news, msgs) hadn't been such a mess. The stock fell 10.4% to $37.14, subtracting about 35 points from the blue-chip index. It was the worst performer among the 30 Dow stocks and the S&P 500.

The pharmaceutical company said late Monday that the Food and Drug Administration wants more information about research on a new anti-cholesterol drug.

The FDA issued a "not approvable" action letter for the drug and rejected the name "Cordaptive." Merck said it would submit more information to the FDA, but one doctor was skeptical about Merck's research on the drug.

"We are tired of them saying, 'Whoops, we didn't anticipate that.' This is a good example of the need to slow down," Allen Taylor, a cardiologist at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, told Bloomberg News. "They've already got doctors hawking the drug, and it isn't even available."

Merck reiterated its profit forecast for $3.28 to $3.38 per share for 2008.

The Dow did get a bit of a boost from IBM Corp. (IBM, news, msgs), whose shares rose 1% to $122.85 after the company said it had increased its dividend 25% to 50 cents a share.

Earlier this month, Big Blue reported a 26% jump in profit for the first quarter.

Still, 18 of the 30 Dow stocks were lower. In addition, 260 S&P 500 stocks were lower. But 58 Nasdaq-100 stocks were higher today.

Chevron (CVX, news, msgs), which reports first-quarter profits on Friday, was the Dow leader. Shares rose 2.4% to $94.74 after rivals BP plc (BP, news, msgs) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, news, msgs) reported that higher oil prices pushed first-quarter profits sharply higher.

In New York trading, BP was up 4.6% to $72.18, and Royal Dutch Shell was up 4.5% to $80.19.

ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs), however, was off 0.7% to $91.79.

* Top Stocks blog: Exxon: The world's 18th-largest economy?

Consumer confidence falls
Consumers aren't optimistic about the economy, according to the Conference Board's key indicator.

The business-research group said its consumer
confidence index fell in April to 62.3 -- the lowest level in five years -- from a revised level of 65.9 in March.

While disappointing, the reading was better the 61 reading that analysts had expected. The index's March reading was originally 64.5.




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