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Re: Cougar6 post# 31038

Sunday, 04/27/2008 5:50:18 PM

Sunday, April 27, 2008 5:50:18 PM

Post# of 60937
I think there are a lot of obstacles to "and a miracle happens here" types of responses in any stock price. In my other holdings, in the last few months, I've seen the sorts of responses that you get in smaller, lesser known issues, as good things begin not so much to begin happening, but to become much better recognized and accepted in the market: see SYBD, QSC... but, while there are some really good days and weeks, the price of most any stock will not go straight up... without a few pre-conditions being already met.

First, the market for and awareness of the shares already has to be large enough that there is buying power sufficient to simply reset the market consensus of value at a higher price and have it stick. Helps to have major institutional buying early. If you are a widely held issue, and announce you are selling off an undervalued asset for $5 a share... you'll see close to a $5 per share change. If you are a non-existent presence in the market, and announce you now have ownership of something worth $300 a share... you might move from $0.13 to $0.45 on the news as it filters out... more if Cramer advertises it for you. Still, the market rightly wants proof in the form of identifiable valuation points... where QSC comes in... earnings do work something like rocket fuel, but even they are suspect until proven... note the chart of the ramp up to the hard fact being reported before lift off... and the drift back to only 6 times earnings now... with the QSC shares being valued lower as cash builds up.

When no one has ever heard of the stock, much less the story, there is a long lag period for market penetration of simple awareness... and, like a presidential candidate, a lot of people will properly want to see how you weather the campaign trail before deciding. Then, when you DO have a story that seems too good to be true, you have issues with people wilfully not believing truths that seem unlikely. SYBD is probably a good example of how good news and perceptions of risk balance market penetration and suspicion. Note a chart of SYBD has a lot of similarities as that of CLYW, in accumulation, at least. Note SYBD has about 8 times the CLYW volume at the point where it really takes off toward $1, where the spikes of 1 to 2 million share days start to look insignificant, like those CLW saw a year ago. The scaling effects on charts create visual artifacts that are a key reason, I think, that many investors make timing or valuation mistakes...

CLYW has survived... but it still hasn't reported out as a whole unit, fully intact, ready to go... so the remaining questions need to be addressed. I expect I'll be happy to see an early stage chart that looks more like SYBDs than QSCs at first... but agree with others that I'm looking for more than a trading opportunity here.

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