Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

[ieddyi]

Security Gains Reverse Iraq's Spiral
Though Serious Problems Remain

Improved security and economic conditions have reversed Iraqis' spiral of despair,
sharply improving hopes for the country's future. Yet deep problems remain, in terms of
security, living conditions, reconciliation and political progress alike.

Fifty-five percent of Iraqis say things in their own lives are going well, well up from 39
percent as recently as August. More, 62 percent, rate local security positively, up 19
points. And the number who expect conditions nationally to improve in the year ahead
has doubled, to 46 percent in this new national poll by ABC News, the BBC, ARD
German TV and the Japanese broadcaster NHK.

Without directly crediting the surge in U.S. forces, fewer report security as the main
problem in their own lives ­ 25 percent, nearly half its peak last spring. Forty-six percent
say local security has improved in the past six months, nearly double last summer's level.
The number of Iraqis who feel entirely unsafe in their own area has dropped by two-
thirds, to 10 percent. And with Sunni Arab buy-in, U.S.-funded Awakening Councils,
created to provide local security, are more popular than the Iraqi government itself.
39%
43%
23%
55%
62%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Own life:
Going well
Local security:
Good
Iraq in a year:
Expect better
August
Now
Life in Iraq
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll
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2
Even more striking is the halt in worsening views. In August, Iraqis by 61-11 percent said
security in the country had gotten worse, not better, in the previous six months. Today, by
36-26 percent, more say security has improved. The new positive margin is not large. But
the 35-point drop in views that security is worsening is the single largest change in this
poll.
11%
61%
28%
36%
26%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Better
Worse
Same
August
Now
Security in the Past Six Months
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll

BEEN BETTER ­ In almost all cases, however, the improvement since August and
March still has not brought Iraqi sentiment back to its pre-2007 levels. While 46 percent
now expect improvements for the country in the next year, that's still far below its level
in November 2005, 69 percent. While 55 percent say their own lives are going well,
that's down from 71 percent in late 2005.
Now August 2007 March 2007 November 2005
Own life going well 55% 39 39 71
Expect gains for Iraq 46% 23 40 69


Similarly, while there's been a big drop in the number who cite security as their own
main problem, 50 percent still volunteer it as the nation's main problem overall ­ little
changed from 56 percent in August. One in four Iraqis still report suicide attacks,
sectarian fighting and other violence in their own area in just the past six months. And the
provision of basic services has barely budged; 88 percent lack adequate electricity.

Much of the improvement since August is driven by Baghdad and Anbar provinces, focal
points of the surge. Seventy-one percent in Anbar, and fewer in Baghdad but still 43
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3
percent, now rate local security positively ­ up from zero in both locales last year. While
a dramatic gain, most in Baghdad, home to a quarter of Iraqis, still say security is bad ­ a
reflection of continued, albeit reduced, violence there.

Economic improvement complements the security gains. Fifty-seven percent rate their
household finances positively, a 20-point jump, again steepest in Baghdad (especially its
Sadr City area) and Anbar. The availability of basic consumer goods has soared even
more sharply; 65 percent rate it positively, up by 26 points since August to its highest in
polls dating to early 2004. And family incomes are up by 26 percent, about $80 a month.

This poll, marking the fifth anniversary of the start of the Iraq war on March 19, 2003, is
the fifth in Iraq by ABC News and other media partners. It consists of face-to-face
interviews with a random national sample of more than 2,200 Iraqi adults.

CHALLENGES ­ Challenges remain broad and deep. Beyond their own lives, most
Iraqis, 55 percent, still say things are going badly for the country, even if that's down
from a record 78 percent in August. Violence remains common, particularly in the cities;
local car bombs or suicide attacks, just within the past six months, are reported by 45
percent in Baghdad, 51 percent in Kirkuk and 39 percent in Mosul.

Living conditions for many remain dire, with sizable majorities reporting a lack of
electricity, fuel, clean water, medical care and sufficient jobs. Improvement in all these
has been modest at best. Six in 10 say they can't live where they choose without facing
persecution, although this, too, is well down from its peak.
12%
19%
30%
31%
38%
88%
81%
70%
68%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Supply of
electricity
Availability
of fuel
Jobs
Clean
water
Medical
care
Good
Bad
Ratings of Local Conditions
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll
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4

Sectarian differences remain vast. While more than six in 10 Shiites and seven in 10
Kurds say their own lives are going well, that drops to a third in the Sunni Arab minority.
Eighty-three percent of Sunnis rate national conditions negatively. And while half of
Shiites and six in 10 Kurds expect their children's lives to be better than their own, a
mere 12 percent of Sunnis share that most basic hope.

Ratings of the national government and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki remain weak ­
43 and 40 percent positive, respectively ­ and sharply split by sectarian group. Just half
think legislators are willing to compromise on key issues. The country divides on the
state of Sunni-Shiite relations, and Arab-Kurdish relations are rated more negatively.

In a telling result, one question asked Iraqis whether this is a good time for the millions
who have fled the country to return. Forty-five percent say yes, now is the time for those
Iraqis to come back ­ but 54 percent say it's not. (Not surprisingly, where security is
rated positively, Iraqis are 20 points more likely to say it's time to return.)

THE U.S. ­ Views of the United States, while still broadly negative, have moderated in
some respects. Just shy of half, 49 percent, now say it was right for the U.S.-led coalition
to have invaded, up by 12 points from August; the previous high was 48 percent in the
first ABC News poll in Iraq in February 2004.
37%
57%
47%
49%
42%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Invasion was right
Attacks on U.S. forces
"acceptable"
Coalition forces
should leave now
August
Now
Views of the U.S. Presence
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll

Similarly, the number of Iraqis who call it "acceptable" to attack U.S. forces has declined
for the first time in these polls, down to 42 percent after peaking at 57 percent in August.
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5
Even with a 15-point drop, however, that's still a lot of Iraqis to endorse such violence.
(Just 4 percent, by contrast, call it acceptable to attack Iraqi government forces.)

Sunni Arabs, dispossessed by the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, are a good example. In
August 93 percent of Sunnis called it acceptable to attack U.S. forces. Today, that's down
to 62 percent ­ a dramatic decline, but one that still leaves six in 10 Sunnis on the side of
anti-U.S. attacks.

Other measures are a little better, if not good. Just 20 percent of Iraqis express confidence
in U.S. forces, up slightly from 14 percent last summer. Just 29 percent say U.S. forces
have done a good job in Iraq, up 10 points. Only 27 percent say the presence of U.S.
forces is making overall security better in Iraq, up 9 points; 61 percent say it's making
things worse.

Indeed, on a basic level, the presence of foreign forces remains unwelcome: Just 26
percent of Iraqis support having U.S. and coalition troops in their country, up a scant 5
points. But this doesn't mean most favor immediate withdrawal. Well under half, 38
percent, say the United States should leave now, down from a peak 47 percent in August.

One reason is that Iraqis are divided on what might follow U.S. withdrawal; 46 percent
think it would make security better, but the rest say it would make security worse or leave
it as it is now. Those who think immediate withdrawal would improve security are twice
as likely to support it.

Moreover, despite their antipathy, big majorities see a continued role for the United
States. From two-thirds to 80 percent of Iraqis support future U.S. efforts conducting
security operations against al Qaeda or foreign jihadis in Iraq; providing military training,
weapons and reconstruction aid; and assisting in security vis-à-vis Iran and Turkey. The
most popular of these is a U.S. role confronting al Qaeda.
Future role for U.S. % support
Security vs. al Qaeda in Iraq 80%
Training/weapons for Iraqi army 76
Reconstruction aid 73
Security vs. Iran 68
Security vs. Turkey 66
Americans long have been conflicted about the war: Broadly unhappy with its costs in
human and material terms alike, yet torn on how and when best to leave Iraq in a tenable
condition. Iraqis, it turns out, are equally conflicted on these issues.

THE SURGE ­ On a national level, as noted, 36 percent of Iraqis say security has
improved in the last six months; that's jumped from just 11 percent in August. Of them,
82 percent express at least some confidence improved security will continue, although
fewer, about a third, are "very" confident of it.
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6
At the same time, few give the United States direct credit for security gains. When those
who see security as having improved are asked who deserves the most credit, Iraqi
institutions lead the way ­ 26 percent cite the national government, 18 percent the police,
13 percent the army. Just 4 percent mention the United States or U.S. forces.

Direct ratings of the surge likely reflect the United States' general unpopularity. Iraqis by
53-36 percent say the surge has made security worse, not better, in the areas where it's
occurred; that, however, has improved sharply, from 70-18 percent in August.

Similarly, Iraqis by 49-30 percent say the surge has made security worse in the rest of the
country (it was 68-12 percent in August); by 43-21 percent say it's worsened conditions
for political dialogue (70-10 percent in August); by 44-25 percent say it's worsened the
ability of the Iraqi government to do its work (65-12 percent in August) and by 42-22
percent say it's worsened the pace of economic development (67-6 percent in August).

These, again, have to be viewed through the filter of general antipathy toward the United
States. What's notable is the change in the number of Iraqis who say the surge has made
any of these conditions worse ­ down by 17 to 27 points.
70%
68%
70%
65%
67%
53%
49%
43%
44%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Security where
forces sent
Security in
other areas
Political
dialogue
Ability of
Iraqi gov't
Economic
development
August
Now
Impact of Troop Surge
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll
% saying it's worse


THE COUNCILS and THE SUNNIS ­ Moreover, an integral part of the surge strategy ­
the creation of U.S.-funded and -equipped "Awakening Councils" to provide local
security ­ is generally popular. The councils are better-rated than the United States, local
leaders, local militias and even the Iraqi government.
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7

Fifty-six percent of Iraqis express confidence in the councils, compared with 49 percent
in the national government of Iraq, 47 percent in local leaders, 22 percent in local militias
and 20 percent in U.S. forces. The councils attract confidence from 73 percent of Sunni
Arabs ­ generally the most alienated Iraqis ­ as well as from 60 percent of Shiites.

These councils began in Sunni Anbar province, where confidence in them peaks, at 88
percent; there now are both Sunni- and Shiite-dominated versions. (They're viewed far
more dimly by Kurds.)

While just 27 percent of Iraqis say the presence of U.S. forces is making security better
overall, nearly twice as many, 51 percent, say the Awakening Councils are making
security better. Just 16 percent say the councils are making security worse, vs. 61 percent
who say that about U.S. forces. And Iraqis almost unanimously reject attacks on
Awakening Council leaders; 94 percent call these unacceptable.

Sixty-four percent of Sunnis say the councils are making security better, vs. 49 percent of
Shiites and 31 percent of Kurds. This, along with the councils' general cross-doctrinal
popularity, makes them look like a potentially effective tool in reassuring Sunni
suspicions of the U.S. and the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad alike.
51%
64%
49%
31%
16%
10%
20%
17%
31%
25%
31%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Iraqis
Sunnis
Shiites
Kurds
Better
Worse
No effect
Awakening Councils:
Impact on Security
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll


The challenge is what happens with these councils over time, with some analysts
expressing concern they could be drawn into sectarian conflict. Fifty-nine percent of
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8
Iraqis ­ including equal numbers of Sunnis and Shiites alike ­ say the councils should be
incorporated into the mainstream Iraqi security forces.

BAGHDAD/ANBAR ­ As noted, it's Baghdad and Anbar, focal points of the surge,
where many of the changes have been greatest ­ but where conditions still lag in real
terms. Ratings of local security have improved by 43 points in Baghdad (from nil in
August) and by 32 points in Anbar (nil in March). They've advanced more slowly in the
rest of the country, by 10 points since August, to 68 percent positive ­ still much higher
than in Baghdad.

Positive ratings of the availability of local goods have jumped remarkably, from zero to
70 percent in Baghdad, and from 28 to 67 percent in Anbar, compared with a 10-point
rise in the rest of the country. The availability of jobs is rated positively by 43 percentage
points more in Anbar now than in August, and by 18 points more in Baghdad, compared
with just 4 points more elsewhere.

Last August, in Anbar and Baghdad alike, no respondents felt they could live where they
wanted without persecution; today 86 percent in Anbar, and 46 in percent in Baghdad,
feel they can. It's been flat in the rest of the country, +2 points, to 34 percent.
Local conditions (% positive)
Baghdad Anbar Rest of Iraq
Now August Now August Now August
Availability of goods 70% 0 67% 28 63% 53
Economic situation 60 15 59 24 56 46
Live w/out persecution 46 0 86 0 34 32
Local security 43 0 71 39 68 58
Own life going well 41 26 26 0 62 46
Availability of jobs 40 22 43 0 26 22


Views that the United States was right to invade Iraq have gained 25 points in Baghdad,
to 46 percent. But in Anbar, the Sunni heartland, this has not changed ­ no one there says
the invasion was right, today as in the polls last August and March alike.

None in Anbar, either, express confidence in U.S. forces, or approve of the way they've
done their work in Iraq. But there is this change: In August 76 percent in Anbar said U.S.
forces should leave Iraq immediately. Today fewer than half as many, 34 percent, say so.

For all this, Baghdad and Anbar are hardly hotbeds of optimism. Just a quarter in Anbar
say things are going well in their own lives (though that's up from no one last August); so
do 41 percent in Baghdad, compared with 62 percent elsewhere. Compared to others in
Iraq, fewer in either Anbar or Baghdad rate the country's situation positively, or expect
their own lives, or the country's condition, to improve in the year ahead.

Another challenge is the strength of militias, especially in Baghdad's predominantly
Shiite Sadr City area: There 70 percent express confidence in the local militia, far more
than the level of militia support in the rest of the country (20 percent) and greater than the
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9
level of confidence among Sadr City residents in either the national government (55
percent) or the Iraqi army (42 percent).

RECONCILIATION vs. DIVISION ­ Other results, however, show majority support for
internal cohesion and reconciliation in Iraq. In one example, 89 percent of Iraqis say
Sunnis, many of whom boycotted previous elections, should now participate in the
political process ­ including 95 percent of Sunnis themselves.

One in six Iraqis say the separation of people along sectarian lines has occurred in their
area ­ almost exclusively in Baghdad and Basra, where (excluding Baghdad's Sadr City)
it's reported by 36 and 34 percent respectively ­ almost all of whom say it's been mainly
forcible rather than voluntary. Yet 92 percent call this a bad thing for Iraq. And 69
percent favor allowing former low- and mid-level members of Saddam Hussein's Baath
Party to hold government jobs ­ including 63 percent of Shiites, despite their suppression
by the Baathist system.

On a structural level, 66 percent of Iraqis say the country should continue as a unified
nation with its central government in Baghdad, as opposed to a confederation of regional
states or outright partition. While Sunnis have been and almost unanimously remain
behind a single state, there's been an advance in this view among Shiites, from 41 percent
last March to 56 percent in August and 67 percent now. The holdouts are Kurds, nearly
all of whom want autonomy or semi-autonomy (details below).
33%
83%
12%
62%
39%
50%
73%
53%
59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Own life:
Going well
Iraq's current condition:
Going badly
Expect better life
for children
Sunnis
Shiites
Kurds
Iraq's Sectarian Divide
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll
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10
Despite support for cohesion, the country nonetheless is very much divided along
sectarian lines. Slightly more than half of Iraqis say they live in Shiite-only or Sunni-only
areas (26 percent in each); add those who live in predominantly Sunni or Shiite areas and
just 15 percent describe themselves as living in mixed locales. This is even though Sunnis
Arabs account for 30 percent of all Iraqis in this survey, Shiites 51 percent and Kurds
(who are Sunnis, but not Sunni Arabs) nearly all the rest.

Iraqis also divide evenly on the state of Shiite-Sunni relations ­ 48 percent say they're
good, 51 percent bad ­ with more Shiites saying they're good (58 percent) than Sunni
Arabs who agree (37 percent). Shiites also are more apt than Sunnis to say relations
between people of these two doctrines are improving, 47 percent vs. 29 percent.

About half of Iraqis say they have a close friend of another doctrine; of them, 18 percent
say it's not safe for them to associate publicly. And in one other result on doctrinal
divisions, 59 percent of Iraqis say they'd refuse to have a grown child of theirs marry a
person of another religious doctrine.

LIVING CONDITIONS ­ One thing on which Iraqis tend to agree is the difficult state of
their living conditions. In the single worst item, 88 percent say their supply of electricity
is bad. (In another measure, just two in 10 report receiving electricity from power lines
for more than 12 hours a day, although that is up from just 12 percent last March.)

It's not just about power. Eight in 10 lack adequate fuel for cooking or driving. Sixty-
eight percent rate their supply of clean water negatively. Sixty-two percent say they lack
adequate medical care, a number that's grown sharply from 36 percent in November 2005
­ likely relating to the flight of doctors, among other professionals, who've had the
wherewithal to leave the country.

As noted, ratings of local security and family finances are sharply better; so is protection
from crime ­ closely related to security and now rated positively by 54 percent, up from
35 percent in August (but still below its peak, 66 percent in November 2005).

The biggest improvement, also as noted, is in the availability of basic household goods,
up 26 points to 65 percent positive. Laggards, though, include some essentials: electricity,
medical care, clean water, fuel, enough jobs to go around and freedom of movement.
Local living conditions
(% rating positively)
Now August Change
Availability of goods 65 39 +26
Schools 63 51 +12
Local security 62 43 +19
Economic situation 57 37 +20
Crime protection 54 35 +19
Local government 46 39 +7
Freedom of movement 44 26 +18
Freedom to live
w/out persecution 39 23 +16
Medical care 38 33 +5
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11
Clean water 31 25 +6
Jobs 30 21 +9
Fuel 19 8 +11
Electricity 12 8 +4

THE KURDS ­ The semi-autonomous Kurdish north continues as an exception in many
cases. Spared the disruption to the south, Kurds are vastly more apt to say they have clean
water, adequate medical care and sufficient jobs, and to rate local government positively.

Nine in 10 Kurds say their local security and crime protection are good, compared with,
respectively, just 35 percent and 23 percent of Sunni Arabs. Electricity and fuel, though,
are as big a problem in the Kurdish provinces as elsewhere.

There are attitudinal differences too. Suppressed by Saddam and long supported by the
United States, the Kurds have far more favorable views of the invasion (87 percent
support it, compared with 5 percent of Sunni Arabs) and the subsequent performance of
U.S. forces in Iraq (63 percent positive, compared with 7 percent of Sunni Arabs),
including the effectiveness of the surge.

Kurds, as noted, are far less wedded to the idea of maintaining Iraq as a single, centrally
controlled state; envisioning a fully independent Kurdistan, 52 percent prefer breaking
Iraq into separate independent states (it was very similar, 49 percent, in August, up from
30 percent last March). An additional 35 percent would like to see a federation of
regional states, with just 10 percent for a single unified country run from Baghdad.
66%
23%
9%
95%
3%
2%
67%
31%
1%
10%
35%
52%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Central government
Federated states
Separate states
All Iraqis
Sunnis
Shiites
Kurds
Future Structure of Iraq
ABC News/BBC/ARD/NHK poll
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12


This poll was conducted after some Turkish incursions into Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish
separatist forces of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, but before the heaviest recent
cross-border attacks. Sixty-one percent of Kurds called Turkish incursions unjustified (as
did more Shiites, 77 percent, but many fewer Sunni Arabs, who are more closely attuned
to Sunni-dominated Turkey).

A large majority of Sunnis, and a smaller majority of Shiites, said Iraq is not doing
enough to control the PKK (80 and 58 percent, respectively); far fewer Kurds, 34 percent,
agreed.

There's another division, on the future of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk; a referendum there
is pending to decide whether it should become part of the Kurdish region. Big majorities
of Sunni Arabs (95 percent) and Shiites (80 percent) oppose it; by contrast, every Kurdish
respondent in this survey ­ 100 percent ­ supported bringing Kirkuk into the so-called
Kurdish Autonomous Region.

There's also a difference in assessments of cross-ethnic relations, particularly between
Kurds and Sunni Arabs. Fifty-five percent of Kurds say relations between Arabs and
Kurds in Iraq are good; just 24 percent of Sunnis agree. And Sunnis stand out in their
view that these relations are getting worse; 44 percent say so, while just 15 percent see
improvement.

BASRA ­ Across the country, in the Shiite-dominated south, is another area of interest:
Basra, where Iraqi forces assumed responsibility from the British in December. Although
there have been recent protests about security in Basra, 68 percent there rate local
security positively, as many as in the country overall.

The source of that security, though, is hard to divine: Basra residents are as apt to say
local militia have a strong presence in their area (72 percent) as to say Iraqi government
forces have a strong presence (an identical 72 percent). That tension may be reflected in
another finding: Just 14 percent in Basra, the fewest anywhere, say they have the freedom
to go where they want safely.

As Shiites, Iraqis in Basra tend to have a more favorable opinion of the central
government ­ 62 percent confident ­ than do most Iraqis elsewhere. That level of
confidence, however has slipped by 14 points in Basra since August.

WORST OFF ­ Three other locales are in contention as the worst-off in Iraq: Mosul,
Diyala and Kirkuk. The Sunni insurgency al Qaeda in Iraq regrouped in Mosul, a mixed
city 240 miles north of Baghdad, after being driven from Anbar when leaders there
switched allegiance last year. Diyala province until recently was held by al Qaeda. And
Kirkuk has been gripped by ethnic strife linked to the struggle for control of its oil.
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13
Today just 13 percent in Mosul rate their local security positively, as do only 21 percent
in Diyala and 34 percent in Kirkuk, compared with 67 percent in the rest of Iraq. A
remarkable 70 percent in Diyala and 52 percent in Mosul say security there in fact has
gotten worse in the last six months, compared with 12 percent elsewhere. Fifty-two
percent in Kirkuk, 36 percent in Mosul and 38 percent in Diyala report a car bomb or
suicide attack in their area in the past six months ­ compared with 25 percent elsewhere
Mosul Diyala Kirkuk Rest of Iraq
Local security good 13% 21% 34% 67%
Security has worsened 52 70 24 12
Attack in last 6 months 36 38 52 25
Live w/out persecution 14 21 29 42
Country doing well 30 26 33 45
Expect better for Iraq 31 25 31 48

People in all three locales are more likely than other Iraqis to cite the inability to live
where they wish without persecution, and Mosul is far more glum economically; just 28
percent there rate their economic situation positively, compared with 57 percent in Iraq
overall. Residents in these three locales are more negative on the country's progress and
prospects, and less apt to expect better lives for their children.

Even in Mosul, Diyala and Kirkuk, conditions across many measures have improved
compared to six months ago. But the situation there remains deeply troubled ­ a stark
reminder of challenges still facing Iraq.


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