benz...
I think your assessment is correct except for your perception of the danger involved. Why do you think the Fed has been scrambling so much the past few months?? It is not to save a few companies or hedge funds, but to save the backbone of our economy, the banking system, which is in very serious danger of collapsing due to derivatives. That would all but guarantee a depression, not a recession.
I think (hope) the Fed understands the necessity of a recession, but simply cannot get a handle on how to safely get us there. Some pain for the patient is a certainty, but none of us want the patient to die or even have a near death experience.
mlsoft