it’s astonishing that the iV natives don’t get something as utterly simple as 10%x1.2=12%. Even ocyan doesn’t get it, evidently, and that’s really surprising.
Dew, taking as a given the 90 and 10 are the real powers then what matters to investors is the 90 not the 10. The expected value of the investment post trial is a function which is proportional to 0.90*NPV-Earnings-if-trial-is-successful + 0.10*something-close-to-zero (the NPV of the company earning if not successful).
A change in the power of the trial from 90 to 88 is only about a 2% change, not the 20% change. I'd like to see a valuation metric where a change in power of 2% effected the valuation by 20%.
BTW - I do not, per se, have heart burn with Dendreon trading risk for $/schedule except that historically it is a trade poorly done by small biotech. And given the values PR'd here I suspect poorly done here as well.
