Some observers claim that the gold price follows the oil price upwards, but in reality rises in both are part and parcel of the same declining dollar phenomenon. But while oil prices can be eased if the OPEC countries agree to boost output, which they may well be under pressure to do, one suspects that the higher gold price levels are here to stay because of its 'safe haven' position.
At the current time there are fears, probably well justified, that the US Fed cannot keep the US economy out of a recession - indeed many believe it is already in that position. What will be the key to gold price progress will be the depth of this recession. Generally it is believed that there will be a recession, but that it will not be a deep one and the economy could be pulling out of it by the year end - but this may be wishful thinking.
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