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Re: jillster post# 226673

Friday, 04/02/2004 4:12:43 PM

Friday, April 02, 2004 4:12:43 PM

Post# of 704019

Jillster I think this is the post. Sometimes they are hard to find. Good Luck MT

Search "bull" in my profile and you'll find that at 2004, exactly, this morning, I donned those horns. The BP of the NDX, Naz, SPX and even Indu have all crossed back over their 14 DMA. My guess is that the Naz and NDX BP will not get above their 200 DMA on the next run (even though I expect the indices to make ne recovery highs above the January highs) and this divergence, if it comes to pass, will confirm the beginning of the next nasty bear market, IMTO.

I expect this rally to pick up steam until about the week of expiry, expecting the old Maginot line at 2088/91 to serve as a major resistance (Wecus, you may want to use the dates here and target to update the map for the next three months), say a first top there on April 14th plus minus two days, that is the first leg of the advance (about 200 Naz point from the low on March 24th). That is followed by a short furious retrench should be held in the general area of 1993 to 2007) lasting no more than a week (let say bottom on 4/22 same plus minus). The second leg should get us above the January high and terminate around 2188 to 2222 and the target date for that peak is just after memorial day June 2nd. From there I have a minor retrench to the area of around 2120 to 2153 (depending how high the last leg went) lasting about two weeks to 6/16, and then we launch what I believe will be the top this year for the Naz (but not the Dow, which could happen later) to, at best 2350 (nominal 2333 as in the 12/25 map). From there I have the meandering of about 180/200 points till late August.

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