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Re: exwannabe post# 5455

Wednesday, 03/12/2008 10:58:05 AM

Wednesday, March 12, 2008 10:58:05 AM

Post# of 12660
DNDN realized they were spending to much alpha on the interum, so they took it away and gave it to the final.

...

My comment is that they are reading way too much into the tea leaves available here.

And note that by having 16% fewer events in the final they are probably removing the 16% of events that contribute most to the HR and p value - because 9901, 9902a (and Tax 327 for that matter) show an HR that increases over time. Unless the alpha assigned to the final increased A LOT (which is unlikely in the supreme - e.g. even if they took all 0.01 of an interim and increased the final alpha from 0.042 it can only go to 0.05) they are probably lowering their power because of the non-constant HR - protestation otherwise not withstanding.

All in all I think this was money driven and is, net, probably a substantial negative. About what I would expect of this management team.
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