I'm getting crucified lately
Still fully invested in this brutal market, so likely being a bit stubborn/foolish. However I'm not in any cyclical stocks, and largely in commodity plays outside this country. So how is it that I'm down 25% on my net. Well the first thing that killed me was the news on CPXO in early january while I was in florida on vacation. That cost me about 1/4 of my loss for the year alone. SOLF is now costing me about 1/4 of my loss this year as well, but averaged in at $14, I'm hoping I can make that back soon. ATRM was a bad loss as well, costing me about 1/5 of my loss this year.
Well there you have it, real bad luck on 3 stocks, and then add the relentless drifting down lately of DYII, SUTR, and LPHI, you get to a pretty big loss so far this year. In fact, my $ loss this year is already close to all of last years gain. Good thing I made around 100% average/year in the last half of 2003-2006, and put half my gains in the bank by early 2006, or I'd be vulnerable to giving all gains since 2003 back!
At this point I'm starting to strongly question whether I can beat this market, and I'm thinking that I probably can't unless I start shorting. However I've decided to let one more week go by on the long side and see how it goes. I'm hoping to see a rally, but if that happens, I'm planning on taking the opportunity to lighten up, and start shorting. This market is brutal and barring a miracle, it will likely stay bad for at least another six months.
There are a couple stocks I would stay with(for now)on the long side though. AYSI, LTUS, SGZI, INRB, and ALJJ. AYSI is my favorite, but SGZI or INRB might sneak up to be huge winners. ALJJ balance sheet is a concern as is LTUS credibility. However ALJJ with a 1 PE, and LTUS with a 3 PE going forward- both fully taxed I believe, are just too cheap to pass up taking a shot with. All the best. Wade
AI
