Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

Re: Intel warns for Q1 - due to NAND

The hit is only to GM, but not to revenues. 56% down to 54%, give or take a point.

This is not the entire story. NAND is not big enough to offset expectations by 2 gross margin percentage points. Intel will have had to have other factors involved as well. They may technically be accurate in saying that NAND is a major contributor, but it can't be worth this much of a GM hit unless other businesses are seeing pricing or mix issues as well.

Also, for revenues to be unchanged, it must mean that unit volumes are higher than expected. This might mean that Intel is gaining share in lower price segments, or it could mean that market demand is growing, in spite of economic conditions. Of course, the latter seems hard to believe.

My take is that if NAND is truly part of the drag, then there is a lot of upside to earnings later in the year of conditions improve. It will be interesting to see if AMD warns. I expect this to affect the stock, but I would think that a lot of negativity is already built in. Any thoughts on where the support is, and at which price it becomes a buying opportunity...?