KSW - Here is some more info to chew on. I feel that if earnings come in strong for the 4th quarter, it should't take much volume to really get things going. They have been under some strong accumulation by institutions over the past 6 months.
Consider this for a minute:
-as of June 30, 2007, 24 institutions owned shares of KSW totaling 1,678,629 shares.
-as of December 30, 2007, 22 institutions owned shares totaling 2,907,006 share.
Thats an increase of 1,228,377 shares purchased by institutions out of a current share count of 6,244,324 (based on the 9/30 10-Q)
My question is how can institutions purchase that many shares over 6 months and have the share price decline from $7.50 as of June 28, 2007 to $6.50 or so now???
I understand that the CEO Warkol has been selling shares, but thats a measly 105,000 shares over the last 2 quarters. Where are all of those other shares coming from???
Here is a list of some major buyers from June, 30, 2007 to December 30, 2007:
Morgan Stanley Asset Management reported 0 shares on September 30, 2007. On December 31, 2007, they reported 329,769 shares!!!
Moab Capital Partners LLC reported 0 shares on June 30, 2007. On December 31, 2007, they reported 608,965 shares!!!
Renaissance Technologies Corp. reported 83,585 shares on June 30, 2007. On December 31, 2007 they reported 210,875 shares!!!
The list goes on but I'm sure you get the point...
At this point they are trading at a rediculous 3.5x Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple!!!
Here is what some of their competitors trade at:
FIX - 6.6x
EME - 6.7x
If KSW traded at 6.0x EBITDA, the share price would be $8.92.
$8.92!!!
Sure KSW is smaller, but they are more profitable and have more room to grow given the nice jump in backlog.
Currently, I think they are a prime target for a buyout, plain and simple. With this much cash on the BS, it would take nothing for a P/E firm or a competitor such as EME or FIX to just buy them out. We'll see...
Fourth Q earnings should be coming out soon. Maybe it'll be the spark we need. I've been holding KSW for a long time now (2 years) and it is currently my largest position...
Good luck to all...
