Dew, recently you posted that GTC was going for 20mil vs. the 6mil that they ended up getting in the recent financing. I guess that translates into a partnership in which they are forced to trade away more of the pretty much solid Atryn HD US future revenue stream. It would also pretty much cement the view that a partnership is more likely to be forthcoming than GTC marketing and selling Atryn HD on its own.
If the above reasoning is valid and if the following evaluation is more or less accurate:
(1) the 3 yr. out (after sales ramp) gross profit from Atryn HD US will be ~23mil (35mil * .66)
(2) GTCs take under a typical partnership would be ~15% of that, or ~3.5mil
(3) the remaining gross profit (after sales ramp) would be ~19.5mil
My question to you is, "how much is that ~19.5mil gross profit likely to be worth? I realize that some of that gross profit would be lost from the partner's point of view since GTC would be selling the product to them for a profit. So maybe the .66 needs to be trimmed down a bit if a partner sells it. Furthermore, could these types of issues be why it is taking a while to get the deal(s) hammered out?
PS: As an afterthought, perhaps a typical partnership would be ~15% of the total sales or .15*35mil or 5.25mil. If this is the model, then the remaining gross profit would be around 18mil minus the cost for the Atryn from GTC.
