AI
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 7:54:11 PM
I've been very busy for several days but am getting back into trading
more actively. I spent some time this past weekend going over
commentary and analysis on the macroeconomic picture, checked in with
reliable traders for their opinions, read through many posts on the
housing problems and listened to several radio shows on commodities
and investing.
Early last Friday, I dumped my tech holdings. The indexes made a round
trip from the dump during the day but Intel didn't recover. The
signals were either very bearish or bottoming with the riskier play to
the downside. On Monday, I didn't watch but I took a small stake in
Intel on Tuesday and other stakes, including Apple, QLD, PAAS, IGE
this morning. Those did well to add to my commodity stocks that have
done well as the US dollar has taken a pounding. I think that the
dollar fell due to Greenspan's comments yesterday and Bernanke's
comments today. I bought Apple as I think that the $80 drop is
overdone.
On the Intel chart, you can see that the descending triangle is still
in play but we are pressed up against the top. A breakout will
hopefully fill the gap to $22.50. A breakdown would probably mean a
trip back to $19.50. Descending triangle patterns are usually bearish.
The volume on this move up isn't impressive. If you look carefully
at the green volume bars on the up moves, you'll see that they are
generally around the average or below average. The down volume bars
are also weak except for last Friday. Momentum indicators are good
right now. What's really needed for the bullish case is a break
through the resistance line tomorrow.
Not much to say here except that we should expect more inflation.
Except in areas like housing. I read a GATA report saying that the
Asians are trying to slow the dollar's fall but it's clear that it's
a pretty tough task. My thesis remains that the weakening dollar will help US multinationals in dollar terms. I still need to put up a long-term chart one of these days which shows the trading range and limits for several years.
One of my silver stocks:
One of my gold stocks:
The best trader that I know went 15 or 30 percent long yesterday and
is up to 60 percent long right now. He is still indicating caution
given the big dip today and will decide whether to hold em or fold em
in the morning.
> Obviously you give some thought to how the market works. Do you think
> prices just reflect participants view of the relative worth of a stock
> ? or is there any reason to say institutions attempt to manipulate
> stock prices by doing things that seem counter-productive (*), such as
> selling at such a fast rate as to make a stock price drop hard and
> draw in trend traders to make it drop further ?
I assume that the market is manipulated by those with better
information compared to retail traders. Intel is a challenging stock
to play on a long-term investment basis. The precious metals have been
far easier. Just buy and forget it (since 2001).
A fund manager losing money for customers while making money for his
own account sounds illegal if we're talking about retail customers.
Brokerages do this (churning) but that's for commissions; not for
their own account. I have read about brokerages to hedge funds playing
them as they know their book or their orders. Wndysrf on clearstation
has written quite a bit on this. If you're the broker and know what
the hedge fund is doing, you might be tempted to use that knowledge
to make money at their expense. Pretty unethical but we're talking
Wall St.
tecate:
> I guess this is why you can't answer the question, you don't
> understand it. If you post inane information and someone questions
> you, you tell them to read it again etc. If you can't answer just say
> so, rather than throw some childish pentalent response.
Ask your husband if you can't figure it out. It's rather amusing that
a) you can't figure it out and b) it bugs you.
> Yes, what other stock do I write about here? I consider anything
> related to Intel and their competitors about Intel. Now if I started
> chatting away about Mattel or Starbucks daily I'd say you had a point.
Microsoft, Yahoo and maybe one other that day.
more actively. I spent some time this past weekend going over
commentary and analysis on the macroeconomic picture, checked in with
reliable traders for their opinions, read through many posts on the
housing problems and listened to several radio shows on commodities
and investing.
Early last Friday, I dumped my tech holdings. The indexes made a round
trip from the dump during the day but Intel didn't recover. The
signals were either very bearish or bottoming with the riskier play to
the downside. On Monday, I didn't watch but I took a small stake in
Intel on Tuesday and other stakes, including Apple, QLD, PAAS, IGE
this morning. Those did well to add to my commodity stocks that have
done well as the US dollar has taken a pounding. I think that the
dollar fell due to Greenspan's comments yesterday and Bernanke's
comments today. I bought Apple as I think that the $80 drop is
overdone.
On the Intel chart, you can see that the descending triangle is still
in play but we are pressed up against the top. A breakout will
hopefully fill the gap to $22.50. A breakdown would probably mean a
trip back to $19.50. Descending triangle patterns are usually bearish.
The volume on this move up isn't impressive. If you look carefully
at the green volume bars on the up moves, you'll see that they are
generally around the average or below average. The down volume bars
are also weak except for last Friday. Momentum indicators are good
right now. What's really needed for the bullish case is a break
through the resistance line tomorrow.
Not much to say here except that we should expect more inflation.
Except in areas like housing. I read a GATA report saying that the
Asians are trying to slow the dollar's fall but it's clear that it's
a pretty tough task. My thesis remains that the weakening dollar will help US multinationals in dollar terms. I still need to put up a long-term chart one of these days which shows the trading range and limits for several years.
One of my silver stocks:
One of my gold stocks:
The best trader that I know went 15 or 30 percent long yesterday and
is up to 60 percent long right now. He is still indicating caution
given the big dip today and will decide whether to hold em or fold em
in the morning.
> Obviously you give some thought to how the market works. Do you think
> prices just reflect participants view of the relative worth of a stock
> ? or is there any reason to say institutions attempt to manipulate
> stock prices by doing things that seem counter-productive (*), such as
> selling at such a fast rate as to make a stock price drop hard and
> draw in trend traders to make it drop further ?
I assume that the market is manipulated by those with better
information compared to retail traders. Intel is a challenging stock
to play on a long-term investment basis. The precious metals have been
far easier. Just buy and forget it (since 2001).
A fund manager losing money for customers while making money for his
own account sounds illegal if we're talking about retail customers.
Brokerages do this (churning) but that's for commissions; not for
their own account. I have read about brokerages to hedge funds playing
them as they know their book or their orders. Wndysrf on clearstation
has written quite a bit on this. If you're the broker and know what
the hedge fund is doing, you might be tempted to use that knowledge
to make money at their expense. Pretty unethical but we're talking
Wall St.
tecate:
> I guess this is why you can't answer the question, you don't
> understand it. If you post inane information and someone questions
> you, you tell them to read it again etc. If you can't answer just say
> so, rather than throw some childish pentalent response.
Ask your husband if you can't figure it out. It's rather amusing that
a) you can't figure it out and b) it bugs you.
> Yes, what other stock do I write about here? I consider anything
> related to Intel and their competitors about Intel. Now if I started
> chatting away about Mattel or Starbucks daily I'd say you had a point.
Microsoft, Yahoo and maybe one other that day.
