skyyy...if ONCONASE gets FDA approval ACEL is a $40 stock. Take a look at Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR)...in the fall of 2006 over a three month period that stock ran from $2 to $27 on the PR of the completion of the final phase of the FDA trials. ACOR is currently trading at $22 and still doesn't have FDA approval! On top of that the market for ONCONASE is much larger than the MS drug for ACOR. My read for ACEL is that we will see three levels in the stock in the coming 10-12 months. Upon the announcement of the completion of their phase IIIb trials (or rather reaching the 316th event which will allow the analysis of the statistical data to begin) IMO we'll see a new 52-week high ($3.74) and I've seen projections to $4.50...this news is imminent. IMO the stock will build to $7-$10 on the anticipation of positive results from the analysis of the statistical data which will take three to four months. Again, IMO, the results will be very strong and that announcement will shoot ACEL to $15-$20 conservatively. Why do I think the results will be very strong: 1)the completion of the 316th event is taking much, much longer than anybody expected which means subjects using ONCONASE are living much longer than the control group and than expected; 2) Sidransky wouldn't put his reputation on the line by becoming chairman of the board (announced in late January) at this particular time if he wasn't convinced that the results will be exciting and warrant FDA approval; 3) ACEL wouldn't be receiving major distribution deals for multi-millions and announcing them without being extremely confident of the results...the fact is, they know what the results are going to be, IMO, because the final four or five events will not substantively change the outcome. So when ACEL receives FDA approval in less than a year from now, it puts all of their deals, some of which are probably yet to be announced, into motion and the guaranteed income alone will create earnings of $1-$2/share (probably more when new deals are included). Based on that and using a PE of 30 ACEL is $40-$60. skyyy, sorry for the long post, but you asked......
