Apple Inc (AAPL)

[langostino]

It's now perfectly reasonable to ask ...

How would AAPL respond if any of these things happen:
(1) One or more analysts cut shipment estimates for iPhone
(2) One or more analysts cut shipment estimates for iPod
(3) Popular financial media outlets begin reporting that iPod sales are stagnant or "mature" and revenue is falling
(4) Popular financial media outlets begin reporting Mac sales are slowing
(5) One or more (additional) analysts cut EPS estimates
(6) Apple "misses" on an earnings report (not misses its own pointlessly low guidance, but misses street consensus or whisper numbers)

How much, if any, of these are already discounted in the stock price at $120-$125?

What is the likelihood the US grinds through the rest of the worst housing cycle since the Depression of the early 30s, grinds through the yet-to-come final depths of the blowup in the financial system, without any impact on Apple sales than currently are evidenced in sales volumes?

I figure there are still plenty of people holding AAPL who either don't fully believe there will be a recession, or believe any recession would be short-lived, shallow, and done by the 2nd half of the year, or don't believe Apple's sales would get dinged by a recession even if one occurred. That seems a statement of the obvious to me. To the extent they're wrong, and to the extent they are forced to shift their views and modify their expectations, it would seem that shows up in AAPL at some point.

I find myself wondering ... exactly how realistic is it to believe that not a single one of the half dozen hypotheticals listed above will happen? And how realistic is it to believe if one or more of them do happen, that the stock price wouldn't get hit?