Biotech Values

[apljack]

Bull Case for JAV:

Bladrunner, there are others here that would do this better, but here's my bull case:

The co. has market approval for injectable diflocenac in Great Britain, with the expectation that it will receive an approval letter for Germany within 6 months from 10/31/07. This product will become the best alternative to Toradol as a post-op pain med. It has a superior side effect profile and no other competitors, so use should be robust. Injectable diclofenac is in P3 trials in the US. Estimated market for this drug is in the neighborhood of $250 million.

The co. has 2 other med's in P3 trials; intranasal Ketamine and intranasal morphine, both to be applied to breakthrough pain problems. Intranasal ketamine has the support of DOD. P3 trials are co-occurring in both the US and Europe for these two. Breakthrough pain is a significant problem, with IM/IV opiates having problems with slower than acceptable onset of relief and respiratory depression. Ketamine has been approved in other forms and used safely for years. JAV has been smart in developing a proprietary formulation of their intranasal product (same is true of diclofenac for that matter.)


http://javelinpharmaceuticals.com/pipeline.html

The current theory of the share price crater is that mgmt isn't repsonsive to IR needs/shorts are having a field day/unproven biotech startups are being sold out/ etc.etc. The co. recently announced a $60 million shelf registration, indicating to most of the longs that they are willing to go it alone with marketing rather than partner up and dilute via revenue/profit sharing. Short interest has steadily moved up in the last several months.

I don't see anything of note happening news wise for the co. with the exception of announcing acceptance in Germany and the first Q report with an actual revenue stream (this will be very modest, imo as the GB approval came late in the Q). I believe that most who have held this aren't expecting any sig revenue until the end of Q2 of this year.

So, there's much to like here. The co. is on the path to 3 approved Meds. They will own the revenue stream and they are an attractive takeover target with stronger atraction as each new drug gets approved. There is potential for a short squeeze here if ANY unexpected news occurs.

regards

aj