Iraqi Dinar Discussion Board

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Economics: identify the factors influencing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate

Hossam judge *
صورة خاصة
Facts have proved and economic and political conditions experienced by Iraq during the last two decades of the last century and the recent years that there are a lot of overlapping and interlocking factors influencing the control line graph of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar ups and downs of foreign currencies in general and the dollar in particular,


ذا المجال.
That proved a mistake to count on the cash procedures established by the Central Bank finally, "despite its importance at this stage" However, these measures could be considered is the only factor and isolation from the rest of the other factors involving the sympathetic aspects of the task in this area.
السلع الاستهلاكية ي.
In addition to Iraqi citizen did not find the desired results of these actions in terms of goal which we envisage goal of reducing the rate of inflation, and that what took place is a clear rise in the prices of consumer goods and the low purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar, and this confirms the presence of a lot of other factors affecting the the real value of the Iraqi dinar.
.
Perhaps the economic factor, which depends on the nature of the variables of economic activities is one of the factors influencing directly in this area as the rates increase national income based on the increase in one-way domestic product may give the wrong and misleading indicators of the real economic growth, it is this increase due to the rise export prices or a resource such as oil or natural gas, and the increase in real GDP must rely on manpower investment and operation of productive and service sectors and diversify the sources of wealth of resources and non-oil sources, so it is the capital of natural resources-oil and non-oil and calculating returns Financial and economic investment in agriculture and industry, and the exploitation of other human energies that are different skills, will achieve a high proportion of self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on imports ratio and thus improving the status of the balance of trade, balance of payments and this in itself is an important factor in contributing to raising the rate of the Iraqi dinar.
اقي.
And the control of foreign transfers that could contribute to addressing the imbalance in the balance of payments and external balance it to maintain the external value of the national currency deterioration, in addition to the identification of capital flight because the exit of these funds is one of the direct causes of the events of the imbalance in the balance of payments, and that the relationship between has control over the conversion rate and the exchange rate seems clear through proportional distribution between consumer spending and investment domestically and externally, and also giving free conversion outer without specific controls lead to heavy demand for foreign exchange compared to what it is available locally and the consequent negative impact thereof The rise in the foreign exchange rate for the Iraqi dinar.
ب.
The variables global economic conditions are factored in the dollar exchange rate locally and globally Valmngirat controlling high or low crude oil prices worldwide have impact on the continuation of the wheel of the machine industry and agriculture of developed countries in a balanced and stable away from the fluctuation might change the prices of their products, which may have fluctuated sharply, and that the rise in crude oil prices globally if it is bad repercussions through higher prices of products exported by the advanced industrial nations affected bulk of this increase is the developing and underdeveloped non-oil producing and exporting bear more economic crises of the advanced industrial countries, which seek to compensate the high cost of production through the export of their products at high prices, and all of that will lead to changes in the exchange rate of the dollar globally and locally Slia or positively, as variables world oil prices and to reduce the effects caused by high oil prices globally note that the United States and other industrialized nations exercise kind of pressure on the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase oil exports to reduce the price of a barrel of oil through the mechanism of supply and demand.
ي.
Other factors are also affecting the speculators banking offices and the exploitation of emergency which disturb the security situation and curfews and religious occasions and the month of Ramadan and the holidays and public holidays and other emergencies to raise the price of the dollar, in addition to the implications of the leak a lot of cash in foreign currency abroad because of the migration of owners capital of businessmen and industrialists, traders and investing outside Iraq, and could conceivably return of these funds and their impact on investment, increasing the money supply of foreign currencies and the ensuing rise in the value of the Iraqi dinar.
ية والامنية غير المستقرة ما زالت تؤكد صحة هذه المعادلة.
Perhaps the interrelationship between the political and security environment on one hand and economic conditions on the other factors are strongly influential in controlling Iraqi dinar compared to other currencies, and can be formulated this reality is "hypothetical equation" so to speak, affirming that security and political stability conducive to stability and economic well-being and thus stability of the local currency and the reverse is true, as witnessed during the Iraq crisis and war and the economic blockade has led to considerable defects of the infrastructure of the Iraqi deserts and the constant change and sharp exchange rate of local currency upwards or downwards secretions and the political and security situation is still unstable confirm This equation.
ين واضيفت كأعباء جديدة فوق ما يتحملون من اعباء.
There are many examples and evidence to support this view during the economic blockade and in proceeding to the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding "oil for food and medicine" during the nineties of the last century, many Iraqis believed that the beginning of this note means lifting the blockade or the economic embargo lifted and really followed by well-being and economic prosperity, low prices and the return of Iraqi dinar to its previous status which led to a sharp decline in the prices of consumer goods, cars, real estate and the sharp drop in the dollar exchange rate, but quickly became clear that this note is a simple maneuver or politically motivated or humane to alleviate the heavy burden , which was borne by Iraqi citizens, and that the final outcome of this issue led to considerable material losses incurred many Iraqis have been added as new over what bear the burdens.
In general, and serious scientific attempts to raise the exchange rate of the Iraqi currency must be taken into account concerted many factors influencing this area including the above mentioned factors.
* باحث اقتصادي
* Economic researcher

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